After Russia invaded in the early morning of Feb. 24, 2022, Russian and Western analysts expected a quick collapse of Ukrainian forces. After fierce initial resistance and unprecedented Western sanctions against Moscow, these expectations switched to the quick collapse of the Russian economy and military.

Now, 1,000 days later, none of these expectations have played out. Since the beginning of the war, hundreds of thousands of people have died, with overall casualties likely exceeding a million. It has surpassed the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s to become the largest and bloodiest war in Europe since World War II, changing the global order in the process.

While a war of such a global scale can’t be easily put in a box, it can be largely divided into five main phases:

The initial phase: Feb. 24-April 2022

Minutes after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the commencement of a “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, Russian missiles began hitting targets all across Ukraine. The first image of the war was a retreating Ukrainian border guard guarding the crossing from Crimea into Ukraine.

Panicked and contradictory reports began emerging out of Ukraine as the Russian military rapidly advanced along four axes — one from Belarus targeting Kyiv, one from the northeast targeting Kharkiv and Sumy, one from the east targeting the Donbas region, and one from Crimea targeting the south.

Ukraine quickly declared martial law and announced a general mobilization of all males from 18 to 60 years of age. Unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian resistance stalled Russian advances around Kyiv while Russia rapidly took territory in the other three axes of advance. The rapid pace quickly ran into problems, however, as small Ukrainian units wreaked havoc on unprotected convoys of Russian logistics vehicles.

The Western world, led by the United States, announced the largest string of sanctions in modern history aimed at crippling the Russian economy and war effort. Many analysts estimated that the sanctions would quickly crash the Russian economy.

Between April 1 and 7, facing an overstretched line and an inability to breach Ukrainian defenses into Kyiv proper, Russian forces withdrew entirely from Ukraine’s north, a move Russia later portrayed as a goodwill gesture as part of peace negotiations. Putin later said there were no plans to storm the capital, citing the small number of troops relative to the 3-million-strong city.

Ukraine strikes back: April – September 2022

Following its withdrawal from the north, Russia consolidated its major gains in the south, connecting the Donbas with Crimea through the capture of territory in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk. From April onward, the war largely became concentrated in these territories, in addition to Kharkiv.

The war largely took on its current form at this time, characterized by attritional warfare along fortified positions. Artillery became the main weapon of war, with Russia capitalizing on its firepower advantage.

A few major developments shifted the war in Ukraine’s favor. In June, U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, a mobile missile launcher, began arriving in Ukraine. Combined with NATO intelligence, these satellite-guided rockets were able to precisely strike Russian ammo depots, command and control centers, and other vital positions, greatly impeding Russia’s progress.

The new role of Western technology was also seen in the sinking of the Russian flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, on April 14. Ukraine would continue to devastate Russia’s Black Sea fleet through missile and drone strikes on Crimea throughout the war.

After months of being on the defensive, Ukraine shocked the world in September when it launched a combined arms assault against weak Russian positions in Kharkiv oblast, a previously quiet section of the front, tipped off by Western intelligence. The Russian line quickly collapsed, its poorly equipped defenders crumbling against elite units equipped with new Western technology. Ukraine retook the entire oblast.

Russia regroups: September 2022 – June 2023

The humiliating defeat shook the Kremlin, which previously hoped its superiority in equipment would make up for Ukraine’s advantage in manpower. To rectify the situation, Putin announced a partial mobilization on Sept. 21, mobilizing at least 300,000 more soldiers. September also saw the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Putin followed this with a shake-up of military command, appointing Gen. Sergey Surovikin as commander of all forces in Ukraine. Surovikin consolidated the line with the controversial decision to withdraw from Kherson city, the only regional capital captured during the initial invasion, and the right bank of the Dnieper River. Kherson had been the target of a costly Ukrainian counteroffensive for months. He also inaugurated the strategy of sustained missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics.

The winter and spring were characterized by a shift to the Battle of Bakhmut, which, by some estimates, was the bloodiest battle since WWII. Described as a “meat grinder,” the Russian and Ukrainian militaries threw tens of thousands of soldiers into the small city, killing untold amounts of people. The Russian mercenary group Wagner took charge, assembling a force of convicts to charge Ukrainian lines with promises of freedom if they survived, while the more elite units took aim at exposed Ukrainian positions.

The battle also saw the growing importance of small, mass-produced drones, with videos of operators hunting down individual troops flooding social media.

Russia faced a major diplomatic defeat in March when the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest for war crimes, along with several major Russian government figures.

Russia declared victory in Bakhmut in May, with participants and observers comparing the remaining husk of the city to Stalingrad, Dresden, and Hiroshima after their respective devastations in WWII.

However, the victory planted the seeds for the greatest political crisis in Russia since Putin took power, as Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin openly bashed the Russian government for allegedly neglecting his troops.

Ukraine took the war to Russia for the first time in May and June, launching large incursions into Belgorod Oblast in Russia. It served as a major propaganda victory for Ukraine and a humiliation for Russia.

Russian political crisis, Ukrainian defeats: June 2023 – February 2024

After voicing increasing defiance bordering on treason, Prigozhin began an open mutiny on June 23, marching on Moscow with his forces, promising to kill the heads of Russia’s military while maintaining his allegiance to Putin. After seizing Rostov-on-Don unopposed, Wagner suddenly halted its march and turned back within hours of the Kremlin, with Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko brokering peace.

After two months of unease, Prigozhin and other Wagner heads were killed when their plane was rocked by an explosion and crashed, allegedly the doing of Russian intelligence. Despite the shock, Russia’s political establishment seemingly emerged unharmed, with no other major threats against its power since.

The same month as the mutiny, Ukraine began its much-hyped counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast, equipped with the latest Western technology and tactics. Despite hopes of recreating its September successes, the counteroffensive quickly stalled and was met with disaster, failing to breach the heavily fortified “Suvorikin Line.”

Hitting minefields, determined Russian resistance, Russian air superiority, and positions fortified over the course of a year, Ukrainian forces were only able to seize a handful of villages while suffering massive casualties. The offensive was finally called off in December, widely deemed a failure. It served as a major psychological blow to the Ukrainians as well, showing the limitations of their newly acquired Western technology.

The front shifted once again to Donetsk, where Russia concentrated its efforts to seize the city of Avdiivka, the linchpin of the Ukrainians’ defensive line in the Donbas. The battle was noted for its similarity to Bakhmut, with both sides shoveling tens of thousands of troops into the devastated city. The Russians made better use of their air power, using massive glide bombs to devastate Ukrainian positions. The city was operationally surrounded by February, triggering a disorganized Ukrainian withdrawal.

Russia retakes the momentum, Ukraine invades Russia: February 2024 – present

Russia’s victory in Avdiivka was followed by incremental advances in the Donbas, having seemingly retaken the advantage. Much of 2024 was characterized by steady Ukrainian defeats, including a renewed Russian invasion of Kharkiv Oblast, which saw significant Russian gains.

Ukraine shocked the world once again with a daring gambit in August, launching an invasion of Russia’s Kursk province, famous for witnessing the greatest tank battle in history during WWII. Russia was once again caught off guard, with Ukrainian forces capturing hundreds of square miles of territory. The operation served as Ukraine’s first major battlefield victory since November 2022. However, officials told the Washington Post that it derailed secret plans for a limited ceasefire, hardening Russian resolve.

Despite the immediate victory, the attack failed in one of its likely objectives — diverting Russian troops from the Donbas. Russia continued its incremental advance across the region in the ensuing months, with the advance gaining steam in October and November.

“The Russians have the initiative across (the front lines) right now. They have successfully exploited tactical gains and are reinforcing those tactical gains,” George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War told CNN on Saturday.

October saw another expansion of the war, as Ukrainian and Western intelligence began to allege that North Korea sent tens of thousands of soldiers to join the fray on Russia’s behalf. In response, the Biden administration green-lighted Ukraine to launch its long-range ATACMS into Russia itself, a move that proved controversial as it occurred during Biden’s lame-duck period.

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Perhaps the most important event of the war in the second half of the year occurred far away from the battlefield, with the United States presidential election. President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed skepticism about U.S. aid to Ukraine and promised a speedy end to the war if elected. Whether he will be able to accomplish this grandiose goal remains to be seen.

As the war’s third year draws to a close, Russia appears to have regained momentum, and the threat of escalation becomes ever greater. Despite this, Ukraine has continued its stalwart resistance, slowing Russia’s advance in the east.