Winter’s hold on the Northern Tier remains firm, with another potential round of snow now being tracked, along with some ice and freezing rain from Tuesday night into Thursday.
This storm system could stretch more than 1,000 miles, delivering hazardous snow and icing this week through the Upper Midwest and New England, according to the FOX Forecast Center. The threat stems from a powerful clash between deep moisture surging northward and Arctic air plunging southward from Canada.
The storm is forecast to organize in the West prior to rapidly progressing throughout the Northern Tier. It is expected to crystallize Tuesday over the Northern Rocky Mountains, intensify across the Northern Plains and then shift to the Great Lakes. Its precise path has uncertainties beyond that point.
Particularly in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and northern Michigan, the Upper Midwest faces a likely snowstorm, though it appears that it will be moderate. However, the exact impacts still aren’t fully clear at this time. (RELATED: State Of Emergency Declared As Florida Faces Worst Drought In 25 Years With Hundreds Of Wildfires)
There is growing confidence in both the timing and intensity of the system, per the FOX Forecast Center.
The storm is projected to begin late Tuesday and persist into early Thursday.
It will have ample moisture to work with, pulling in atypical levels from a Pacific surge entering from the Southwest, as well as extra moisture out of the Gulf of America.
❄️ WINTER’S GRIP: A complex winter storm is forecast to move from Tuesday night through Thursday, stretching over 1,000 miles across the Northern Tier. While the exact storm track remains uncertain at this time, it could bring everything from a wintry mix, heavy snow, ice, and… pic.twitter.com/yuNv3yh97h
— FOX Weather (@foxweather) February 16, 2026
As the system strengthens, North Dakota and northern Minnesota will be best positioned for heavy snowfall Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Vigorous winds are also forecast, raising the possibility of blizzard conditions in some areas.
At present, the states have the strongest possibility of a major snow event, with a reasonable chance that totals exceed 5 to 8 inches.
The storm’s path is a key uncertainty, as little moves northward or southward could dramatically alter types of precipitation. (RELATED: ‘Very Significant And Dangerous’ Severe Storm To Potentially Spark Up Tornadoes, Flash Flooding In Southern California)
A track farther north would allow warmer air to push in, potentially resulting in rain or a rain-snow mix across parts of the Upper Midwest rather than all snow. On the other hand, a somewhat more southern track would keep colder air entrenched, likely boosting snowfall amounts, per the FOX Forecast Center.
The storm is expected to start weakening by Wednesday.
A decrease is likely with the coverage, with colder air returning to the region. That said, concern remains regarding a short period of freezing rain Wednesday if a cold air layer lingers near the surface amid warmer air shifting above.