2024 Senate retirement watch: Bernie Sanders and Kyrsten Sinema

Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) are the last remaining incumbents up for reelection this cycle who will enter 2024 without announcing if they plan to run.

The Democrats control the Senate by a 51-49 margin. Republicans only have 10 incumbents up for reelection this cycle, while Democrats have 23, including Sanders and Sinema, both independents who caucus with the Democrats.

WHITE HOUSE DECLINES TO VETO BAN ON APPLE WATCHES AS DEADLINE EXPIRES

Sanders has remained evasive about his 2024 plans, telling reporters who ask in the Capitol that such questions are a distraction from the work he’s doing. The independent senator represents deep-blue Vermont, where the filing deadline is not until next August, giving him ample time to make a decision.

In the meantime, Sanders is focused on leading the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, a role that allows him to oversee efforts to boost workers rights and expand healthcare access. Both issues were top focuses of Sanders’s two presidential campaigns.

Sanders has been working in his capacity as HELP chairman with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on a drug pricing reform bill, which is expected to be brought forward sometime early next year. The deal is believed to feature several measures, including reforms to how pharmacy benefit managers operate.

(AP Photos)

Should Sanders seek a fourth term, his age will also likely be discussed. Sanders, 82, would be 89 at the end of another six-year term, which would start after he turned 83.

Sanders is far from the only octogenarian in the Senate and even further from being the oldest member — at 90, that title belongs to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA). Still, he’s had his share of health challenges, including a 2019 heart attack that temporarily took him off the campaign trail.

Sinema, meanwhile, is closing out 2023, working to secure a deal in the bipartisan border security negotiations, which, if successful, could boost her reelection prospects in a race she has yet to enter.

Sinema has been heavily involved in the talks, which are being led by Sens. James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) and have centered largely on changes to federal asylum policy and how the Biden administration uses the humanitarian parole authority. There have also been reports that the White House has offered to establish a new border expulsion law and increase mandatory detention rates as part of the negotiations, though no one from the Senate working group or the Biden administration has confirmed as much publicly.

All involved in the negotiations have said this is some of the most difficult legislative work they have ever done. For Sinema, the stakes of reaching a deal could involve her political future, a topic she has refused to discuss.

“This is definitely the hardest thing we’ve done,” Sinema said in an interview, referring to how complicated border law is. “My state cannot afford Congress to ignore this anymore or to fall back into their partisan comfort zones of just attacking each other.”

Sinema has not launched her 2024 reelection campaign despite continuing to fundraise. The Democrat-turned-independent is mum on her plans as a possible three-way race takes shape.

Despite her enormous influence as one of the most coveted swing votes in a closely split Senate, Sinema’s low approval rating in Arizona and public breakup with the Democratic Party have made her the most vulnerable incumbent up for reelection in the 2024 election cycle.

She and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) became foes within the party for their refusal to support eliminating the 60-vote filibuster threshold as the rest of the Senate Democratic Caucus got on board, facing an intense, very public pressure campaign to shift their stance on the matter as President Joe Biden’s agenda stalled. Sinema, in particular, was turned into a boogeyman among Democrats for her refusal to defend her position publicly as frequently as Manchin, who maintains a rigorous press schedule.

Should she decide to seek a second term, Sinema’s race will put her theory that most voters have also spurned their party identity to the test. It is unclear, though, if she can build enough of a centrist coalition to win statewide.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who emerged as a prominent Sinema critic as she began bucking her party under Biden, launched a bid to unseat her in January. Gallego is expected to win the Democratic nomination easily with Sinema not running in the party’s primary.

Republican Kari Lake, the party’s 2022 gubernatorial candidate who refuses to concede her loss to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), launched her bid for the GOP nomination in October. She has met with National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership despite her controversial reputation as Republicans try to coalesce around a single candidate in the hope of securing a victory in a complicated possible three-way race.