The most recent climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that an El Niño pattern is likely to develop in the middle of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — a phase known for historically reducing hurricane and tropical storm activity in the basin.
One of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) three phases, El Niño is a natural climate cycle driven by fluctuations in the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric patterns that can significantly affect weather worldwide.
El Niño is characterized by conditions that are warmer, with La Niña being on the cooler side. ENSO-neutral describes periods when temperatures are around long-term averages.
This winter, the climate stayed in a state of La Niña, which contributed to repeated outbreaks of Arctic air across the eastern United States, triggering an active period of winter storms that delivered record or near-record snowfall to many locations in the Northeast. (RELATED: Flood Threat Grows For South As Cross-Country Storm Set To Unleash On Millions)
NOAA reports that ENSO is now transitioning to a neutral condition, with increasing signs that El Niño will emerge in the summer — aligning closely with long-range predictions issued in 2025.
Current guidance gives a 50–60% probability that El Niño will become established just as the peak of hurricane season approaches.
El Niño usually generates winds that disrupt tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
Warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean and increased rising air associated with El Niño produce aggressive westerly winds that shear through the Caribbean and Main Development Region (MDR), according to the FOX Forecast Center.
El Niño is expected this summer and fall. What does that mean? Usually fewer Hurricanes. And a stormier fall/winter for Florida. On average that is. Nothing ever is a guarantee with weather. pic.twitter.com/7xGngIEmSG
— Mike’s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) February 12, 2026
The winds have the ability to tilt or interrupt forming tropical systems, inhibiting their organization and intensification while fostering an atmospheric environment that’s more stable.
Historical records support these trends.
La Niña years often bring a more active Atlantic hurricane season, averaging around 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In contrast, El Niño years generally see quieter conditions, with averages dropping to about 10 named storms and five hurricanes. (RELATED: Multiday Cross-Country Winter Storm Set To Unleash Snow, Rain Over Valentine’s Weekend)
Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean could counteract the dampening effects that El Niño normally has on tropical systems, per the FOX Forecast Center.
The expected El Niño shift comes after a weak La Niña period that prevailed during the 2025 hurricane season, which produced no landfalling hurricanes in the United States, however, had three major (Category 3 or higher) storms — featuring the historic Category 5 Hurricane Melissa that caused catastrophic damage in Jamaica.
While seasonal outlooks can accurately capture wide trends, the specific day-to-day atmospheric patterns ultimately determine whether tropical systems form and where they track.