President Joe Biden has been bombarded with bad news over the past day in the fallout of his disastrous debate performance last week, and now one election projector has moved two states toward his opponent — former President Donald Trump.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved Minnesota and Michigan toward Trump, placing blame solely on Biden’s debate performance. Minnesota moved from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic,” while Michigan was moved from “leans Democratic” to a “toss-up.”
In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group said that Biden had failed and potentially exacerbated his biggest weakness with his debate performance — leading to these changes in favor of the GOP.
“In agreeing to the earliest-ever general election presidential debate, President Joe Biden sought to change the focus of this election from a referendum on himself to a choice between him and a flawed rival, former President Donald Trump,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote. “Needless to say, not only did Biden fail in this objective, but he exacerbated perhaps his biggest weakness — a widely-held belief that he is simply too old and diminished to lead the nation for another four years.”
Some polls prior to the debate in Atlanta showed Trump gaining in Minnesota, which he lost by roughly 1.5% in 2016 and roughly 7.1% in 2020. A poll from the Hill-Emerson showed Trump and Biden virtually tied in the state, in a poll released a week before the debate.
In Michigan, Trump has led in most recent polls over Biden, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing Trump with a 1.2% lead over the president. Trump won the state in 2016, but lost it in 2020.
“Just to be clear, Biden has zero plausible paths to the White House without Michigan,” Kondik wrote.
With the updated ratings, 251 electoral votes are rated anywhere from leans to safe Republican, compared to 226 electoral votes rated anywhere from leans to safe Democratic, and the remaining 61 electoral votes are rated as “toss-up.” A candidate must win 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
The shift toward Trump comes weeks after Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved six states in favor of the GOP prior to the debate.
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Democratic internal polling obtained by Puck News on Tuesday showed Biden taking a significant hit across the board after the debate and trailing Trump in typically Democratic states New Mexico and Virginia.
The aftermath of Thursday’s debate has seen several calls for Biden to step aside, as Democrats panic over the prospects of him leading their ticket in November following the train-wreck performance.