The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted three states, including hotly contested battleground North Carolina, toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
The updates come as Harris continues to shrink the lead, both nationally and in seven battlegrounds, that former President Donald Trump opened up on President Joe Biden before the latter dropped out of the 2024 presidential race in July.
The Cook Political Report‘s publisher, Amy Walter, wrote Tuesday that the Tar Heel State is now a toss-up, as opposed to leaning Republican, “not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home.”
“Back in May, the Cook Political Report Swing State Project survey showed Biden trailing Trump by seven points (41% to 48%). The most recent Swing State Project poll taken in late July/early August, found Trump taking a similar share of the vote (47%), but Harris had improved on Biden’s share of the vote by seven points and sat at 48%,” Walter continued. “Her success was driven by increasing her margins with Democrats (+13), Black voters (+4) and independent voters (+13).”
Walter noted that Trump and his campaign appear to be keyed into this movement, as the former president has campaigned in North Carolina three times in the month since Harris supplanted Biden atop the Democratic ticket.
“The Trump campaign can’t afford to let North Carolina slip,” Walter said. “If Harris were to win just North Carolina and the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she could afford to lose every other competitive Sun Belt state — Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona — and still win the Electoral College vote.”
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The Cook Political Report also observed how Harris is causing a rallying effect in Minnesota and New Hampshire, shifting both states from “lean” to “likely” Democratic come November.
“Back in late June, for example, a St. Anselm College Survey showed Trump narrowly edging Biden in New Hampshire — 44% to 42%. A mid-August St. Anselm poll put Harris ahead by seven points — 51% to 44%,” Walter noted. “We’ve seen a similar “snap back” in polling in Minnesota as well. A May SurveyUSA poll taken for local Minnesota TV stations showed Biden leading Trump by just two points. The late July poll by SurveyUSA – taken prior to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s selection as Harris’s running mate – found Harris leading Trump by 10 points.”