In various critical states for electoral success, Democrats have held one key advantage over Republicans: registered voters. However, in many of these states, the advantage is slipping away.
Florida
Florida, a longtime battleground state, has slipped safely into Republican hands in recent cycles. At one time, Democrats dominated Republicans in the state regarding the number of registered voters. The yawning gap in 2012 was a 557,544 advantage in favor of Democrats.
President Barack Obama won Florida that year, but it has been a downward slide for the party since then. Its advantage dwindled in succeeding years, and registered Republicans surpassed Democrats in 2021.
As of the end of July, the GOP holds a 996,795 registered-voter advantage over Democrats as the state has increasingly turned toward Republicans. The voter-registration advantage is a significant obstacle for Democrats looking to win statewide contests in the Sunshine State.
Pennsylvania
Not every state where Republicans are making gains in voter registration has flipped as firmly as Florida. Pennsylvania has also seen the Democratic advantage dwindle in recent years.
In the Keystone State, Democrats had enjoyed an advantage of 1 million more registered voters than Republicans in 2008, but 16 years later, Republicans have significantly closed the gap. As of the end of August, Democrats only hold a 352,226 voter advantage over Republicans.
Though they control a statewide advantage, Democrats have watched their leads in several counties marked as a key to success in the presidential election shrink or flip entirely.
Erie County was a key swing county in Pennsylvania that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential election but flipped back to Democrats in the 2020 presidential election. In terms of voter registration, Democrats had enjoyed a 40,531 registered-voter advantage in 2008, but as of August 2024, that lead in the county for Democrats is down to a net advantage of 10,390 voters over Republicans.
Bucks County, a key suburban district outside of Philadelphia, had seen Democrats hold a 13,119 registered-voter advantage in 2008, but ahead of the 2024 election, Republicans hold a narrow 829 registered-voter advantage over Democrats.
Nevada
Nevada is another key state where Republicans have gained ground with voter registration figures that they hope to flip in the presidential race.
In the Silver State, Democrats held a 96,875 registered-voter advantage over Republicans at the end of 2020, after former President Donald Trump narrowly lost the presidential election in the state to President Joe Biden.
With just over two months until Election Day, the Democrats’ registered-voter lead over the GOP has been reduced to 47,881. The number of registered Democrats in the state has gone down in that time, while the number of registered Republicans has increased.
Since the end of 2020, Democrats have been unseated as the largest voter affiliation, with nonpartisan becoming the largest group of registered voters in the state. With the increase in nonpartisan voters, independents will be more critical than in past elections for Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Since the 2020 presidential election, voters reelected Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in 2022 but also elected Republican Joe Lombardo for governor over the Democratic incumbent in the same election.
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In addition to tightening the margins in various swing states, in recent years, Republicans overtook Democrats in voter registration in Kentucky and West Virginia, both considered GOP strongholds.
With an expectedly close presidential election in November, Republicans and Democrats will be relying on every advantage they may have over the other side, including voter registration.