National security professionals run for Michigan Senate seat that could decide majority

Senate races are rarely decided by foreign policy, with voters caring more about domestic pocketbook problems. But in the 2024 fight for an open Michigan Senate seat, the leading candidates’ national security backgrounds make a focus on international affairs almost inevitable.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is set to retire after the 2024 elections, setting up a potentially highly competitive race in a premier swing state. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is expected to nab her party’s nomination. She’s a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official with a significant background in national security. The highest-profile Republican in the race, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is an Army veteran and former FBI agent who was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee from 2011-15.

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The Senate race is sure to become a heavy-spending affair, with Senate control on the line. Republicans want to overturn Democrats’ current 51-49 Senate majority, and the Michigan race is a key part of that plan. It also will overlap with a likely White House rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. In 2016, Michigan went for Trump by 47.2% to 47% over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, helping the first-time candidate clinch one of the biggest political U.S. upsets ever. Four years later, Biden prevailed in Michigan relatively easily over Trump, 50.62% to 47.84%.

High turnout from the 2024 presidential race in Michigan is likely to spur even more interest than usual in the Wolverine State’s Senate contest. How much of a factor the national security backgrounds of Rogers and Slotkin matter remains to be seen. After all, the United Auto Workers strike against three major automakers is commanding headlines.

Former Executive Director of the Michigan Republican Party Jason Cabel Roe pointed out that the state’s economy depends a lot more on foreign policy than most others. It is a “hub for transportation for goods and services as well as being the backbone of the auto industry.”

Moreover, Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia is likely to resonate significantly with swaths of Michigan residents. Just over 37,000 Ukrainian Americans live in Michigan, according to 2023 U.S. Census Bureau figures — good for about .37% of the state’s population. In a close Senate race, that’s enough to make a difference. And Michiganders more broadly will be interested in hearing the views of Rogers and Slotkin on continued U.S. aid to Ukraine and related issues.

An unsettled candidate field
During his 14 years in the House, Rogers held a similar House seat to the Lansing area and northwestern Detroit exurbs 7th Congressional District Slotkin holds. Rogers won it as an open seat in 2000, succeeding Stabenow in the House as she moved up to the Senate. Rogers won by 111 votes out of more than 297,000 cast against his Democratic rival, the closest House race that year.

In 2018, Slotkin beat an incumbent House Republican, part of a Democratic revival in Michigan since Trump’s shock win in 2016. For instance, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) easily won reelection in 2022, and the party captured majorities in both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in nearly 40 years.

GOP strategist Dennis Darnoi called Rogers a top-tier candidate for the party. Though he’s well behind Slotkin financially — she’s a skilled fundraiser who racked up $10 million for her 2022 House reelection campaign — Oakland University professor David Dulio said the potential matchup might be the most “evenly matched” set of candidates the state has seen in a long time, potentially giving Republicans an edge to flip the seat in the general election.

However, Republicans have only won a single Michigan Senate race in the last 40 years, with Sen. Spencer Abraham coming out on top of a 1994 open seat contest before losing six years later to then-Rep. Stabenow.

But neither Rogers nor Slotkin are yet their parties’ nominees. Former Rep. Peter Meijer and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig have also been eyed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee as candidates in the race.

Darnoi said those two, and Rogers, could be in good positions to receive financial support from the national party in their campaigns. Other Republican candidates, such as Michigan State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, may not receive much financial support if selected as the standard-bearer of the party due to doubts about her ability to win the November 2024 general election.

Darnoi highlighted that Republicans are excited about having a “quality candidate” in the race, and depending on what happens in the 2024 presidential election, the Michigan seat could very well become an important seat for the party as well.

“I think it gives us a real good fighting chance,” he said, one that “we haven’t had in the past couple of cycles.”

Slotkin faces her own challengers for her party’s nomination. Actor Hill Harper, a political newbie who is running to the political left of Slotkin, launched his bid for the 2024 race in July. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh and former state Rep. Leslie Love are also seeking the Democratic Senate nomination.

Slotkin has positioned herself as a centrist Democrat, a fact that Cabel Roe said might force her “to take some positions that might not be as beneficial for her” as she battles for her party’s nomination.

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However, former Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer noted Slotkin is on the right side of issues important to Democratic primary voters, citing her support of Social Security and Medicare.

“She’s a very hard campaigner. She works very, very hard, and people in Michigan like to see their candidates,” Brewer told the Washington Examiner. “She’s already been getting out all around the state, getting to know people in the state that she didn’t represent previously.”