The poll, commissioned by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Harris is polling 3 points ahead of Trump when including third-party candidates, who received 4% of the vote. When Harris and Trump are polled in a head-to-head matchup, she polls 1 point ahead of him at 49% to Trump’s 48%. 

It’s a switch from when AARP polled Wisconsin voters in July. Then, President Joe Biden was still in the presidential race, and Trump led by 6 points in Wisconsin. Now, Harris is up 3 points — a 9-point shift in Democrats’ favor. Harris has made net double-digit gains since launching her campaign among independents and Democrats compared to Biden in July.

In terms of party affiliation, Democrats have almost unanimously consolidated behind Harris, and she has an 11-point advantage with independent voters over Trump.

The poll found urban and suburban Wisconsin voters are voting for Harris by double digits, while rural voters give Trump a 22-point lead. In the suburbs, Harris leads by 16 points, which is a net 19-point gain over Trump, who had a 3-point edge with suburban voters in July.

Voters ages 50 and older favor Trump by 2 points. He is up 10 points with voters ages 50 to 64 in Wisconsin, but Harris is up 6 points with seniors in the state. 

“Wisconsin voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Martha Cranley, the state director of AARP Wisconsin. 

“If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters 50 and older, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers,” Cranley continued.

Seventy-seven percent of voters ages 50 and up indicated that Social Security was “extremely important” or “very important” to them. In that same age category, 69% said Medicare was “extremely important” or “very important” to them, and 59% said the same about lowering the cost of prescription drugs. 

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In the state’s Senate race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Republican challenger Eric Hovde, Baldwin led polling 50% to Hovde’s 47%, with 3% of voters being undecided in this race.

The poll contacted 1,052 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters and an oversample of 452 likely voters age 50 and older in Wisconsin. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4 points and plus or minus 3.5 points for voters ages 50 and older.