Armenia has been dealt a series of critical blows since 2020, when Azerbaijan launched a full-scale invasion of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. After a massive victory in 2020, Azerbaijan blockaded and then fully annexed the province in 2023, resulting in an exodus of nearly the entire Armenian population.

The failure of the Biden-Harris administration to influence events has greatly angered the Armenian diaspora in the United States, with many going so far as to threaten to withhold their votes in protest. With Harris appearing intent to carry on Biden’s foreign policy, her candidacy is closely connected with that of Biden’s.

No exact figures reveal the true total number of Armenians in the United States, but estimates vary from 800,000 to 1.5 million. Most are centered on “Little Armenia” around Glendale, California, where little electoral effect can be felt. 

However, a substantial number reside in key swing states, which held previous races that were only decided by thousands of votes in some cases. 

The Washington Examiner spoke with Armenian-American communications strategist Stephan Pechdimaldji for more insight on the growing Armenian-American uncommitted movement.

According to Pechdimaldji, there are 200,000 Armenian Americans across Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. These numbers could also serve as a force multiplier, as Armenians have a close relationship with other Mediterranean Christians, including Greeks, Assyrians, Lebanese, and Arab Christians, most of whom tend to lean more liberal than the general public.

Armenian and Greek Americans are also some of the wealthiest immigrant groups, holding outsize political power. The Armenian lobby is known to be especially powerful, mainly focusing on countering Turkey and Azerbaijan, recognizing the Armenian genocide, and supporting Armenia. It’s found allies in both Republican and Democratic camps as support for Armenian interests has historically been a hodgepodge of figures from both parties.

While Biden did recognize the Armenian genocide, his support for Turkey and Azerbaijan has enraged the Armenian community, particularly after the exodus of the multiple millennia-old population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Protests broke out in the Los Angeles area, but Azerbaijan faced few repercussions.

Pechdimaldji admitted that Trump’s record on Armenia isn’t much better — it was on his watch that the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war broke out. Largely due to the timing — the 44-day war lasted from September to November, the climax of the election season — the U.S. paid little notice. Pechdimaldji said that he wasn’t alone in voting against Trump partially as a protest vote for a lack of action over the war.

Pechdimaldji, a registered Republican, said that he was one of many Armenians who voted for Biden in 2020 due to Biden’s support for Armenia during his time in the Senate.

“All flew out the window once he became president because he reneged on most of those promises, with the exception of recognizing the Armenian genocide,” he said. “He’s been a major, significant disappointment for Armenian Americans.”

“And Joe Biden did [recognize the Armenian Genocide], which was great, but days later, he… waived Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which basically bans aid to Azerbaijan,” he continued. “What he basically did was give Azerbaijan the green light to continue their aggression towards Armenians, and so essentially, he recognized a genocide only to allow another one to continue.”

Under Biden’s watch, Azerbaijan consolidated its gains in Nagorno-Karabakh, blockading the enclave before ultimately launching another offensive in September 2023, annexing it completely. The Biden administration declined to explicitly condemn Azerbaijan and sent almost no aid to the enclave during its blockade and to the refugees who fled afterward.

“And there was… a yearlong blockade, which denied Armenians, 120,000 of them, from gaining any food, fuel, electricity,” Pechdimaldji said. “It was a blockade and nothing from the administration. They did not condemn Azerbaijan. They put no pressure on Azerbaijan to lift the blockade.”

“This all comes in the context of what’s going on in the world,” he added. “We hear Biden talking about Ukraine… how he’s not going to bow down to autocrats and authoritarians like Putin. And here’s Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, committing all these similar acts, and not a word, nothing.”

The U.S.’s calculus toward Armenia is complicated by several factors. The country has been a Russian protectorate since World War I, gaining the upper hand in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war of 1988-1994 due to Russian support. Armenia unofficially broke with Russia in its 2018 Velvet Revolution, after which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sought closer ties to the West. This was complicated by a general western unwillingness to reciprocate, resulting in the small Caucasian country being caught with no major allies when Azerbaijan made its move in 2020.

Azerbaijan has also complicated matters by forging a close alliance with one of the U.S.’s closest allies, Israel, which provided the majority of the advanced drones used to steamroll Armenian forces in 2020. The complicated web of alliances has left Armenia with Iran as one of its greatest defenders.

“I think what happens is that geopolitics plays a role in this,” Pechdimaldji said. “I think [the U.S.] look at Azerbaijan from a strategic point of view, right where they’re located, they’re close to Iran. So they see them strategically as a partner. Azerbaijan has done an exceptional job of exploiting its resources, mainly natural resources, oil and gas. I think the West, I think the Biden administration sees Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia.”

The predicament has led many Armenian-Americans to sympathize with the Palestinian/Arab American uncommitted movement, though the two haven’t officially cooperated.

“We know we’re very close to the Greek community because they’ve been persecuted by the Turks. So we understand each other. The cultures are very similar. We share the same religion,” Pechdimaldji said. “And that’s why we do feel for Arab Americans and Palestinian Americans because it’s not just about one religion, right? … for the most part, we do feel very sympathetic to those groups.”

While the uncommitted movement is largely unofficial, Armenian groups such as the Armenian National Committee of America have organized events and spread information supporting the movement. They were particularly involved in the movement in Michigan, where they formed a common cause with Arabs there to vote against Biden in the Democratic primary. Pechdimaldji described the group as the “glue” of the movement.

According to Pechdimaldji, the single best candidate for Armenians was Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who openly championed the Armenian cause throughout his campaign. Whether this support will flow over to Trump after RFK Jr.’s endorsement of him remains to be seen.

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All in all, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Biden-Harris administration’s reaction to it could prove decisive to the 200,000 Armenian Americans across the major swing states, who see the issue as personal.

“Armenian-Americans see Azerbaijan’s aggression through the lens of the Armenian genocide and a threat to our very existence,” Pechdimaldji said. “You need to remember that when Azerbaijan ethnically cleansed more than 120,000 Armenians from Artsakh last year, it was the biggest displacement of Armenians since the Armenian genocide. That’s why this is such an important and timely issue for us and why both campaigns need to do more to earn our votes.”