Hispanic Voters in 2024: A Transforming Bloc for Trump and the Republicans

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Among the key data on eligible Hispanic voters in 2024 is the rapid growth of the Hispanic electorate. Since the 2020 presidential election, the number of eligible Hispanic voters in the U.S. has grown by nearly 4 million. In 2024, an estimated 36.2 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, compared to 32.3 million in 2020. This represents half of the total growth of eligible voters nationwide during this period. The annual increase in new voters is approximately 1.4 million Hispanics in the U.S. becoming eligible to vote each year as they turn 18, significantly contributing to the rise in eligible Hispanic voters.

Although Donald Trump saw an increase in support from Hispanic voters in 2020, the majority (59%) voted for Joe Biden, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. Historically, Hispanic voter turnout rates have been lower compared to other racial and ethnic groups, though their growing numbers could influence future elections. Projections and data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that the Hispanic electorate continues to expand, with detailed demographic information available for deeper analysis. This growing group of voters will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 elections and beyond. A national poll by Quinnipiac shows Donald Trump leading in the Hispanic vote with 52%, compared to 44% for his opponent.

Hispanics, a key voting bloc in the U.S., have traditionally tended to support the Democratic Party. However, in recent elections, there has been a noticeable shift, with more Hispanic voters showing support for Republican candidates, including Donald Trump. Several factors could explain why this trend is occurring and why it could continue in the 2024 presidential election, potentially helping Trump return to the White House.

Many Hispanic voters cite the economy as their main priority, and some believe that the Republican Party offers better policies for job creation, tax reduction, and economic stability. During Trump’s presidency, some Hispanics felt they benefited from strong economic growth and low unemployment rates, leading to increased support for Trump and the Republicans.

Social issues, such as religion, abortion, and family values, play an important role in the political views of many Hispanics. A large portion of the Hispanic population is Catholic or Evangelical Christian, and they may align more with the conservative positions of the Republican Party on these issues, especially as the Democratic Party adopts more progressive stances.

Some Hispanics feel disconnected from the Democratic Party, seeing it as too focused on issues that don’t resonate with their daily lives, such as climate change or progressive identity politics. Others feel that the Democratic Party has taken their support for granted without delivering concrete benefits, especially on issues like immigration reform.

Trump has been able to attract working-class voters, including many Hispanics, by positioning himself as an outsider willing to fight against the political establishment. His populist rhetoric, focus on economic nationalism, and firm stance on border security resonate with some Hispanic voters who prioritize law and order or feel marginalized by globalization.

There is growing diversity within the Hispanic electorate, and not all Hispanics share the same political views. For example, Cuban Americans in Florida have tended to be Republican, while Mexican Americans in Texas and other states have been more Democratic. However, Trump gained support in both groups during the 2020 election, indicating a broader shift.

Although immigration has historically been a key issue for Hispanic voters, it is not always the most important factor in their voting decisions. Some Hispanics, particularly those who are second or third-generation immigrants, may prioritize issues such as the economy, education, or healthcare over immigration policy. Additionally, Trump’s tough stance on immigration appeals to certain segments of the Hispanic population who favor stricter border control and law enforcement.

Also, the Republican Party has increased its focus on the Hispanic community, particularly in states like Texas and Florida. By investing in Spanish-language media, community events, and grassroots efforts, Republicans have managed to weaken the Democrats’ dominance over Hispanic voters.

The shift of Hispanic voters towards the Republican Party and Donald Trump poses a significant challenge for Democrats. If this trend continues in 2024, it could reshape the electoral map, giving Trump and the Republicans a stronger chance of winning in key states with large Hispanic populations, such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.

I had the opportunity to discuss this and more last week on Real America’s Voice. Watch the clip:

Maria Herrera Mellado

María Herrera Mellado es una abogada de EE.UU. y licenciada en España. Doctora en Ciencias Jurídicas y Analista política. La Dra. Herrera es conocida por su amplia experiencia en análisis y consultas en el diseño de políticas públicas, propuestas de ley y gestión en relaciones internacionales.

Su reconocimiento proviene de sus contribuciones al análisis y representación legal de diversas organizaciones, empresas e individuos que han visto abusados sus derechos humanos, su privacidad o en la inclusión  de políticas efectivas fundamentalmente en el ámbito de la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas, así como la lucha contra la corrupción.

Su formación académica y experiencias profesionales la convierten en una voz respetada en el debate público y en el análisis de temas de actualidad sobre todo en los desafíos políticos y legales contemporáneos.

María Herrera Mellado is a U.S.-based attorney also licensed in Spain. She holds a PhD in Legal Sciences and is known as a media legal and policy analyst.

Dr. Herrera is recognized for her extensive experience in analyzing and consulting on public policy design, legislative proposals, and international relations management.

Her recognition stems from her contributions to the analysis and legal representation of various organizations, companies, and individuals whose human rights or privacy have been violated, or who have benefited from the inclusion of effective policies, primarily in the areas of transparency, accountability, and the fight against corruption.

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Her academic background and professional experience make her a respected voice in public debate and in the analysis of current issues, particularly in contemporary political and legal challenges.