One of former President Donald Trump’s consistent polling strengths has been voters’ feelings that he will manage the economy better than his Democratic opponent.
“Trump continues to lead on the economy, but his advantage on inflation has disappeared,” Kelly said.
“He did have a six-point lead in August over her, 48-42, now it’s evenly divided, 47-47, on who they trust more to handle the issue that 60% of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that concerns them the most,” she added.
Kelly referred to inflation and cited a string of surveys from the Cook Political Report that showed a deadlocked race in swing states but a dwindling advantage from Trump on the economy. Harris has enjoyed strong leads among voters who care about abortion and protecting democracy.
“They care most about inflation, and they’re evenly split now on that issue,” she continued. “They say there’s a few explanations for it. The first is that Harris’s message on the economy has broken through. Another is that Trump’s attempt to link her to Bidenomics, I mentioned this earlier, has not been as effective as Republicans had hoped. And they go on to talk about how even Trump’s best issue, immigration, he’s still winning on it, he has his largest lead over her there, 51-42.”
“But that’s a five-point drop from where he was over Harris in August,” Kelly added.
Harris shared several of her planned economic policies with voters, such as a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and a federal ban on price-gouging from grocery stores. The vice president has also proposed a $50,000 tax break for small businesses.
“And guys, what this tells me is that her insanity over … I’m gonna issue price controls. And I’m gonna give all first-time homebuyers $25,000, and trust me, that’s not gonna drive up the price of homes for people who aren’t first-time homebuyers who are competing against those same people in the market — is working. It’s working!” Kelly said. “She’s somehow getting through on it.”
The economy has consistently been the top concern among voters this election cycle. A recent PBS News/NPR/Marist poll showed that 40% of people in the United States believed the economy was in poor shape, and 59% of them said it would be a deciding factor in how they cast their ballot.
Some voters have considered that inflation was lower during Trump’s presidency and has been much higher during a bulk of President Joe Biden’s. Harris has sometimes sought to distance herself from Biden regarding the economy since she joined the Democratic ticket, and signs that she’s catching up to Trump indicate it could be working.
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Another matter Harris has tried to catch up to Trump on is immigration. In the Cook Political Report poll, Trump has lost ground on the matter by 5 points since August. The vice president has inched to a more moderate position on immigration in an attempt to make a difference in swing states that prioritize immigration, such as those close to the Mexican border in Arizona and Nevada.
As for the core polling in the survey, Harris holds tight leads in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The race is tied in North Carolina, while Trump leads by two points in Georgia.