Hamas and Hezbollah Down, But Not Out

On day 365 of the war, Hamas continues to hold hostages, including four Americans, which the Biden administration does not seem to be too concerned about. Israel has eliminated much of the top leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah and has severely limited Hamas’ ability to launch attacks, although Hamas is increasingly coordinating with other extremist groups to make up for its losses.

Despite this, both Hamas and Hezbollah remain threats, with Hezbollah still posing the larger danger and having sustained less damage so far. Iran has also launched missile barrages against Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, and has vowed to escalate its attacks.

The future of the war and its outcome largely depend on Iran’s response and U.S. actions. While Biden has pledged support for Israel, he has made it clear that the U.S. would not back direct attacks on Iran.

However, with the U.S. Navy deploying more ships to the region, any direct attack on U.S. forces or vessels could provoke a response, potentially igniting a broader regional conflict.

The Conflict as it Stands: Israel’s military campaign against Hamas continues, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to eliminate Hamas still unfulfilled.

Despite Israel’s claims of killing 17,000 of Hamas’ estimated 25,000-30,000 fighters, more detailed reports identify about 8,500 fatalities. Hamas retains operational capabilities in Gaza and has escalated activity in the West Bank.

While Israeli forces have established control over several areas in Gaza, including Gaza City and Khan Yunis, Hamas continues to regroup and engage in guerrilla tactics, relying heavily on explosives and tunnel networks.

These tactics, while less direct than conventional warfare, have allowed Hamas to maintain a presence in key areas despite Israeli offensives.

In the West Bank, Hamas has intensified its activities, with involvement in approximately 130 violent incidents over the past year—more than double from the previous period.

Hamas’ increasing use of complex explosive operations in both Gaza and the West Bank suggests a shift in its approach as its capabilities dwindle.

The group’s attacks, sometimes coordinated with other factions, have resulted in significant Israeli casualties.

Despite its weakened military state, Hamas remains a central actor in Palestinian resistance, with no ceasefire in sight, and both Gaza and the West Bank continue to experience violent clashes, marking the conflict as far from over.

While continuing its war with Hamas, Israel has also intensified strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On day 365 of the conflict, the IDF targeted multiple Hezbollah locations in southern Beirut after warning residents to evacuate.

Meanwhile, Israel struck Hamas compounds in central Gaza, including a former school and mosque, resulting in at least 13 deaths and 20 injuries, according to medics.

Over 30 rockets were launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, triggering sirens. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris expressed concern for Lebanon’s people and pledged $157 million in aid, while the UN chief called for the release of hostages and an end to the violence.

Hashem Safieddine, a senior Hezbollah leader and cousin of the former leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israeli forces last month, was reportedly targeted by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Wednesday, according to Israeli and U.S. media outlets.

The initiative marks the latest in Israel’s ongoing campaign against Hezbollah’s leadership.

The strike occurred in a bunker in Beirut, though it remains unclear whether Safieddine was killed.

Safieddine had long been considered a potential successor to Nasrallah, who was killed a week earlier in another Israeli strike, dealing a significant blow to Hezbollah and Iran.

Safieddine also has deep connections to Iran, as his wife is the daughter of former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, and his brother Abdallah leads Hezbollah operations in Iran.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of Lebanon this week, following a missile attack on Israel by Iran. The heightened tensions have increased fears of a larger regional war.

Safieddine was designated a terrorist by the U.S. in 2017 due to his leadership in Hezbollah’s executive council. His assertive and aggressive nature has drawn comparisons to Nasrallah, with some describing him as even more “bloodthirsty.”

In a briefing by the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) on September 24, Lieutenant Colonel Gidi Harari, a resident of northern Israel near the Lebanese border, discussed the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah.

Since October 8, Harari’s village, Kishar Yeshuv, along with other northern regions, has been evacuated due to escalating hostilities, though some residents have returned.

Harari noted that despite daily rocket and drone attacks from Hezbollah, many residents prefer to stay at home rather than evacuate to hotels.

He emphasized that while the military campaign is focused on pushing Hezbollah back, the goal is not to escalate into a full-scale war with Lebanon and Iran.

Instead, Israel aims to severely weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities, with recent strikes targeting key Hezbollah leaders and infrastructure.

Harari acknowledged concerns about infiltration by Hezbollah fighters but stressed the importance of military presence along the border to reassure residents.

He explained that the weather in the north, particularly fog, could impact military operations but said Israeli soldiers are prepared for these conditions.

He also highlighted Hezbollah’s role in protecting Iranian interests, particularly its nuclear program, and noted that the current objective is to pressure Hezbollah without triggering a larger regional conflict involving Iran.