An internal survey from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows the two men locked in a tie. The latest poll indicates a decline in support for Brown over the past few months as the same survey showed Brown leading by 7 percentage points in April.  

The incumbent Democratic senator held a lead of 4 points over Moreno in August, according to an AARP poll. 

A GOP strategist told the Hill that while Brown has “unlimited money,” the Senate race continues to be “very competitive.” 

With Moreno earning former President Donald Trump’s endorsement last December, Republicans are counting on a strong turnout for the presidential candidate on Election Day to boost the GOP’s chances of flipping the seat in the upper chamber.

“If Trump wins by double digits, Sherrod’s toast. If Trump wins by 6-7, Sherrod’s got a real shot,” the strategist said. 

The RealClearPolitics aggregate of the latest polling data shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 8 points in Ohio. Trump’s win in the state during the 2016 presidential election came after GOP presidential candidates had failed to clinch Ohio since 2004. Trump increased his margin of victory in the Buckeye State in 2020, signaling his base of support is solidifying in Brown’s stronghold.

The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Brown has wielded political power in Ohio for decades. Before his successful Senate run in 2007, Brown had represented the state’s 13th Congressional District since 1993. He had previously served as the 47th secretary of state of Ohio from 1983 to 1991. 

Brown won his last reelection bid in 2018 by a safe margin of roughly 7 points. 

His victory this election cycle is critical to the Democratic Party’s hopes of retaining its slim two-seat Senate majority. 

Republicans are expected to pick up a Senate seat in West Virginia after Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) announced he would not seek another term. Meanwhile, GOP candidates have made significant gains flipping Senate seats in states such as Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is giving Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) a fight for his life. 

Brown and Moreno, along with their allies, have poured millions of dollars into securing their Ohio ambitions, making the Senate race the costliest in the country. 

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The decision from the National Rifle Association’s political arm to launch a seven-figure ad buy in the state earlier this month came as a boost to Moreno’s campaign. 

Meanwhile, Brown’s campaign announced at the beginning of October that it had raised nearly $31 million. That is the most money any Ohio Senate candidate has ever raised in a quarter.