Some Democrats have long-shot hopes of flipping either Texas or Florida in the presidential race, but a new poll likely has those same Democrats feeling blue.
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in both states by more than 5%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Tuesday. In Texas, Trump is leading Harris, 50%-44%, while in Florida, Trump is leading Harris, 55%-41%.
While Trump’s 6% head-to-head lead over Harris in Texas is roughly in line with the former president’s 5.4% lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state, his lead in Florida in the new survey is larger than in the polling average.
Trump currently holds a 14% lead in the New York Times/Siena College poll, but recent polls of the Sunshine State had only shown him with a 4% lead or a 1% lead in a survey from the Hill/Emerson College. The former president’s lead puts him more in line with the performance of GOP statewide candidates in 2022 when the closest race was a 16.4% victory by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
In 2020, Trump defeated President Joe Biden by roughly 5.5% in Texas and by roughly 3.4% in Florida.
Florida and Texas have been rated “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report. However, with their respective Senate races, some Democrats expressed hope that Harris may be competitive in both. Democrats have hoped to make abortion a key matter in unlikely bids to flip both states in the presidential and Senate contests.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) are the two most vulnerable Republican senators up for election in November, but both are considered fairly safe in comparison to the bevy of Democratic seats that are considered to be significantly closer races.
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Cruz’s race is considered “lean Republican,” while Scott’s race is rated as “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report. In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Cruz is leading his Democratic challenger, 47%-42%, while Scott is leading his Democratic challenger, 46.3%-42%.
The New York Times/Siena College poll data released Tuesday did not include the Senate races in either state.