Former President Donald Trump has gotten progressively better at politics since his surprise victory in 2016. When he walked into the White House the first time, the handover from former President Barack Obama was awkward, stilted, and difficult.
There was a sense that his upset of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was so unexpected that despite his famous confidence and swagger, Trump was swept into office without a plan in place. He was an upstart politician who had offended the sensibilities of establishment Republicans. He struggled to find people to staff his administration and needed experienced hands who knew how to pull the levers of government.
Eight years later, some of Trump’s problems persist, but he has a clear vision of what he wants to accomplish and who he needs around him to meet his goals.
The Washington Examiner is taking a deep dive into the presidential transition that is coming. With President Joe Biden stepping aside, there is no question that January will bring a wave of new faces staffing the White House and leading the federal government. (You can read more about anticipated problems Vice President Kamala Harris will have in our first installment.)
This morning, National Political Correspondent Mabinty Quarshie looked at how Trump has matured as a political operator and the teams of people he has turned to to help him staff his administration.
Trump is more prepared than he was in 2016, but he hasn’t appeared to be any quicker on the uptake to get the ball rolling than he was the first time around.
“Just weeks before Election Day, his campaign has yet to tap into federal resources available for both candidates’ transition teams,” Mabinty wrote. “Trump’s campaign says there haven’t been any ‘formal discussions’ about who will be in his Cabinet during a second administration.”
The team not using federal resources isn’t for a lack of organization. Trump’s campaign announced top leaders of his transition team weeks ago — including former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Despite having his transition leadership in place and a long list of people trying to elbow their way into his good graces, Trump’s team is slow-walking an agreement with the General Services Administration, which is the agency tasked with helping smooth presidential transitions.
“The campaign had two deadlines, one on Sept. 1 and another on Oct. 1, to sign two separate memoranda of understanding with the GSA, and it has not signed a required ethics plan, a departure from long-held practice,” Mabinty wrote. “In contrast, the Harris campaign has signed both MOUs and the ethics plan.”
“The Trump campaign said it would eventually sign the MOUs as it works with the Biden administration on a transition,” she wrote.
Click here to read more about the Trump transition team.
Mapping out Ohio
Ohio has been moving away from its status as a bellwether state in presidential contests in favor of taking on a distinctly red hue. The Buckeye State is home to one of the most important and competitive Senate contests this year, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) trying to fend off Bernie Moreno, but the contest is trending in Brown’s favor despite the lead Trump is expected to run up.
The state’s congressional delegation skews safely to the right as well, with 10 Republicans and five Democrats traveling back and forth to the Capitol. However, a pitched battle over a state constitutional amendment could upend that dominance — with the help of millions of dollars pouring in from out of state.
Congressional Reporter Rachel Schilke is on the road in Powell, Ohio, to see how the fight over Issue 1, an initiative that would change the way districts are drawn in the state, is adding a layer of complexity to a pivotal state.
“A ‘yes’ vote on Issue 1 will alter the redistricting process and take authority away from Ohio lawmakers and place it in the hands of a 15-member Ohio Citizens’ Redistricting Commission,” Rachel wrote. “The OCRC would be made up of Republican, Democratic, and independent citizens who represent the demographics of the state.”
“Gerrymandering” has been a hot topic in Ohio. The state Supreme Court has killed seven different maps drawn by the current commission, which includes two Republicans, two Democrats, the governor, the secretary of state, and the auditor. Republican dominance in the state means the current commission is overwhelmingly controlled by the GOP, and the state Supreme Court has consistently said the way they have put their thumbs on the scales has been unconstitutional.
But Republican opponents of Issue 1 argue the initiative is even more problematic. They say the new commission will ensure even more partisan line-drawing and that the entire movement is being underwritten by out-of-state and out-of-country money.
“What we would say to folks is a couple key things: Read the language,” Ohio Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou told Rachel. “The language says straight up, this would put gerrymandering into our state constitution.”
And while the politics of the measure are a problem for opponents, they are also raising the alarm about who is paying for its support.
Citizens Not Politicians is the primary Issue 1 backer. The organization bills itself as a nonpartisan coalition that has the support of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Though the varied support is raising red flags for its critics.
The organization “has raised $23 million since the beginning of 2024 as of August. The largest donors are progressive or nonpartisan groups from Washington, D.C., funding about 60% of the campaign. Of the $23 million, $11.1 million has come from Washington, D.C., $3.6 million from Ohio, $3.4 million from Virginia, $2.1 million from California, $1.6 million from New York, and $1 million from Massachusetts.”
And a significant chunk of those donations has come via the Sixteen Thirty Fund, which has accepted more than $243 million from Hansjorg Wyss, a liberal Swiss billionaire.
“Foreign nationals are barred from donating to individual campaigns and elections under federal law. However, the Federal Election Commission ruled ballot issues do not fall under that umbrella,” Rachel wrote. “To close the loop, Ohio signed into law a ban on foreign contributions to campaigns, including ballot measures, in May.”
Click here to read more about map and money fights unfolding in Ohio.
Sheehy shaking up the Senate
Republicans appear to be on a glide path to retaking the Senate as more polling coming out of Montana shows Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) falling farther and farther behind challenger Tim Sheehy.
Tester was always one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection this year and when Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) announced he wasn’t running for another term, the GOP turned its sights almost totally on Tester. An incredibly favorable map that has allowed Republicans to go on offense in seven competitive contests has meant the fight for Tester’s seat has shaped up to be the most expensive per-vote contest ever.
Congressional Reporter Ramsey Touchberry is in Montana this week to get a sense of the contest, and he had a cozy view of Sheehy making his closing pitch to voters why sending Tester back to Washington would be detrimental for a Trump administration.
“Make no mistake: If he does not have a Congress that’s supporting his actions, we saw last time what happened. He was impeached twice,” Sheehy told a small group of supporters gathered for a rally on Monday that Ramsey attended. “Oh, by the way, your senior senator, Jon Tester, voted to impeach him not once but twice. If Trump doesn’t have the Senate when he gets there, he will be impeached right away.”
It’s far from guaranteed Trump is going to beat Harris next month. The contest is razor thin, and polling shows minuscule lead changes within the margin of error, which is sowing doubt in everyone’s minds about their chances of victory.
There is little doubt Trump will win Montana’s four Electoral College votes as the state has only supported a Democratic candidate once since 1976. So while he can’t have much of an effect on the presidential contest, he is doing everything in his power to flip the Senate for Republicans.
“The Senate, arguably, is just as important as the White House this cycle,” Sheehy said. “And our state, Montana, will have a deciding vote.”
Click here to read more about Sheehy’s push to shore up the Senate for Republicans.
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For your radar
Biden will speak at an event in Philadelphia at 6:45 p.m.
Harris will sit down for an interview with Charlamagne tha God at 5 p.m.
Trump will sit down for an interview with Bloomberg and the Economic Club of Chicago, in Chicago, Illinois, at 12 p.m. Eastern before participating in a Fox News town hall that will air on Wednesday. Trump will host a rally in Atlanta at 7:30 p.m.