The poll, commissioned by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Trump and Harris tied at 46% to 46% in a race with third-party candidates included. In a head-to-head race, Trump leads Harris by 1 point, 49% to 48%.

The percentage point gap is unchanged from the August Michigan AARP poll, which had Trump polling at 45% to Harris’s 43%. Fewer voters in the October poll, however, are undecided or choosing third-party candidates.

Trump has a narrow 2-point lead among the 50-65 voter demographic on a head-to-head ballot and one point on a full ballot. Harris leads by double digits among voters ages 18-34 and 65 and older. 

In the 50-and-older category, 90% of older voters say their motivation to vote is 10/10, which is 14% higher than 18- to 49-year-old voters indicated in the poll. 

“Michigan voters ages 50 and older are the largest voting bloc in the state, and this poll makes clear that they are not locked in for either candidate in the presidential or senate race. While Trump holds a wide lead among voters ages 50-64, Harris matches that lead with voters over 65, making the race extremely close,” Paula Cunningham, AARP Michigan state director, said in a statement.  

In the state’s Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former Rep. Mike Rogers, Slotkin has a 3-point lead, getting 49% to Rodger’s 46% edge. Slotkin performs best with women, holding a 16-point lead among women 50 and older, but Rogers leads by 15 points among their male counterparts.

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Democrats are voting for Slotkin at a higher margin than Republicans are voting for Rogers, but Rogers remains popular with independents, holding a 5-point lead in this group over Slotkin.

Methodology: AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey of voters in Arizona between Oct. 2 and Oct. 8. The poll interviewed 1,382  likely voters, including a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The margin of error for the statewide sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points and is plus or minus 3.5 points for the 800 total sample of voters 50 and older.