Democrats, in total, raised $203 million last quarter, which is nearly 2.5 times the GOP’s $83 million haul. Republicans have been sounding the alarm that they are falling behind Democrats in the cash contest, but the shortcomings are higher than expected.

Nearly half of the Democrats’ haul was in three Senate races — Montana, Ohio, and Texas — with the candidates there all raising at least $30 million in the quarter. While Montana and Ohio are tight contests that could swing either way, the Texas race, while tight, isn’t expected to be competitive on Election Day.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) raised $32.2 million, more than three times that of Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, who raised $9.7 million. Tester faces an uphill battle to save his seat over Sheehy in an increasingly polarized political landscape that makes it difficult for a Democrat to hang on in deep-red Montana.  

In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) raised more than any other Republican, but his $17.2 million haul comes up short of opponent Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-TX) $30.3 million.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) raised nearly five times as much as Republican Bernie Moreno, with Brown raking in $30.7 million this past quarter compared to Moreno’s $6.5 million. The Senate race in Ohio, once a swing state that has moved to the right in the Trump era, has seen more TV spending than any other Senate race ahead of the general election. 

In Florida, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raised $15.1 million last quarter, which is three times the $4.9 million haul from Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). 

In swing-state races in Michigan and Arizona, Democrats are outraising Republicans by wide margins. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) raised $18.2 million last quarter, a 4-to-1 haul over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers’s $4.5 million. In the Arizona Senate race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican Kari Lake, Gallego raised $21.8 million, nearly 2.5 times as much as Lake’s nearly $9 million. 

Wisconsin’s Senate race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Republican challenger Eric Hovde was one of the closer states regarding Senate battleground fundraising. Hovde raised $11.6 million, $7 million of which he donated from a loan he took out, but Baldwin still raised more, pulling in $13.6 million this quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, Hovde self-funded the majority of his campaign.

Nevada also saw a smaller margin of disparity, with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) raising $12.1 million to Republican challenger Sam Brown’s $8.5 million.

In Nebraska’s unexpectedly tight Senate race, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) raised only $1.2 million last quarter, which is less than independent Dan Osborn’s $3.3 million. The polling average from FiveThirtyEight has Fischer less than 2 percentage points ahead of Osborn.

Despite the high fundraising, the GOP appears poised to win a majority in the Senate.

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Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) seat looks all but certain to go to the Republican Party, and, in Montana, Tester’s odds are slim. If Republicans are able to hold on to their seats in Florida, Nebraska, and Texas and flip West Virginia and Montana, they will reclaim the upper chamber. 

“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Politico. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”