For Democrats to take the chamber, they will need to net four seats. However, these seats held by Democrats could see the incumbent lose and risk the Democrats’ bid to win the majority.

Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK)

In 2022, partially due to the state’s rank-choice voting system, Peltola flipped Alaska’s at-large congressional seat after longtime Rep. Don Young (R-AK) died in March of that year.

Alaska, a state with a partisan voting index of “Republican +8,” according to the Cook Political Report, voted for Peltola in the ranked choice system after two Republicans, Nick Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin, appeared on the ballot in 2022. In 2024, Peltola faces Begich, but the “toss-up” race will not have another Republican on the ballot, aiding Begich’s chances, while Peltola will have another Democrat on the ballot.

In 2020, Alaska handily voted for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, 52.8%-42.7%, and the House race that year saw Young beat an independent candidate aligned with Democrats, 54.4%-45.3%. The presidential race in the state has been rated as “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO)

Caraveo is seeking reelection to a newly formed seat she won in 2022 in Colorado, which holds an “even” partisan voting index, according to the Cook Political Report.

In 2020, Biden won the district over Trump by roughly 4.7%, and in 2022, Caraveo defeated Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer, 48.4%-47.7%. The district has the largest Hispanic community of any of the state’s congressional districts, a demographic Republicans are gaining ground with nationwide.

On Nov. 5, Caraveo will face Republican Gabe Evans. A poll released earlier this month from Emerson College/KDVR-KWGN/the Hill showed the race between Caraveo and Evans essentially tied. Evans had a narrow 44.2%-44.0% lead over Caraveo in the survey.

Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME)

Another Democrat running for reelection in a deep red seat is Golden, who represents Maine’s 2nd Congressional District with a partisan voting index of “Republican +6.” Golden was first elected to the seat in 2018.

Maine is one of two states that have awarded electoral votes based on the congressional district. Maine’s 2nd District voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. In 2020, Trump won the 2nd District, 52.2%-44.8%, despite Golden winning reelection to the House seat, 53%-46.9%. The race for the district’s electoral vote has been rated as “likely Republican,” while the House seat has been rated as a “toss-up.”

Golden faces Republican Austin Theriault in the Nov. 5 election. A Pan Atlantic Research poll released last month showed Theriault leading Golden, 47%-44%. In the presidential race in the Congressional District, Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 49%-42%.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA)

Perez is seeking another term in her seat representing Washington’s 3rd Congressional District after defeating Republican Joe Kent in an upset victory in 2022.

The seat has a partisan voting index of “Republican +5,” and the race has been rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. Under its current boundaries, the seat voted for Trump by 4.5% in 2020. While Perez won the House seat in 2022, more voters in the district picked Republican Tiffany Smiley over Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) in the Senate concurrent contest, 54%-46%.

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In 2024, Perez is facing a rematch against Kent for the seat. The race is one of several districts where Trump won in 2020, but Republicans lost in House races in 2022. With Trump at the top of the ticket and having endorsed Kent, it remains to be seen if the GOP will win back the seat.

While the race for control of the House will depend on Democrats holding onto their own seats in Trump-voting districts, another factor will be whether blue-state House Republicans can outrun the former president on the ballot in their districts.