Former President Donald Trump is maintaining a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among an unlikely demographic as her campaign reportedly worries about her chances in key swing states, according to a new Arab News/YouGov poll obtained by Semafor.
In a new Arab News/YouGov poll, 45% of Arab American voters said they are more likely to vote for Trump, compared to 43% who said they will likely vote for Harris. More Arab Americans, 39%, think Trump will “successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict,” compared to Harris who has 33% of the community’s support on this question, the poll shows. Two weeks before the election, the Harris campaign is worried about the vice president’s chances in the “blue wall,” such as Michigan, where the Muslim community is prominent, three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy told NBC News. (Stream Daily Caller’s latest documentary ‘Cleaning Up Kamala’ HERE)
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” a senior Harris campaign official told NBC News, emphasizing that there are real concerns over her path to victory if Michigan goes for Trump while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania stay blue.
Of likely Arab American voters, 4% of respondents said they would cast their vote for third-party candidate Jill Stein and 6% said they were still undecided, according to the poll. Arab News/YouGov surveyed 500 Arab Americans nationally between Sept. 26 and Oct. 1 2024 and the poll has a margin of error of 5.93%.
🧵 President Trump took to Truth Social to voice concerns that Arab-Americans are disaffected with Kamala Harris.
The Daily Caller recently did a deep dive on dissatisfaction with Harris in Muslim communities in Michigan that touched on some of the same concerns. pic.twitter.com/QQS0X3zGwt
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 21, 2024
Muslim Americans in Michigan are making an effort to flip the state for Trump in protest of the Biden-Harris administration’s Middle East policy. One activist organization, Drive for 75, has calculated that if 75% of its community can turn out to the polls then the vice president has a 99.9% chance of losing, Rex Nazarko, who is heading up the effort, previously told the Daily Caller. (RELATED: ‘We’re Desperate’: Socialists, Muslims Band Together To Deny Harris The White House)
“What was a guarantee for [a Harris loss] to happen? We tried with different percentages and different turnouts, and with the 75% number, again, accounting only for the Muslim community, not other communities, not other allies, not other progressives. It essentially guaranteed a 99.9% likelihood of the vice president losing the election in Michigan, if 75% of [the community turned out],” Nazarko told the Caller, explaining that they ran numerous mathematical simulations to inform their strategy.
“We ran that simulation 10,000 times, and almost every time that was the case. So that’s how we got the Drive for 75 call to action and idea,” he explained.
As a part of the effort to flip the state, Muslim activist organizations are pushing their community to vote for Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, or even Trump, they told the Daily Caller. Abandon Harris, one of those groups trying to spoil Harris’ election chances, threw its support behind Stein, who also has the backing of some socialist groups in the U.S. due to her anti-capitalist economic positioning.
“We need to be clear about what our goals are, we are not in a position to win the White House. But we do have a real opportunity to win something historic. We could deny Kamala Harris the state of Michigan,” Kshama Sawant, a former Seattle City Council Member and self-described socialist, said to cheers at a recent rally for Stein.
A Harris campaign spokesperson denied NBC News’ report that there were concerns over their ability to win Michigan.
“We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt told NBC News, pointing to the vice president’s recent stops in the state. “We think we will win Michigan.”
The vice president has recently campaigned across key swing states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin alongside former Republican Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney.
Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris sits with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) for a town hall with Maria Shriver at the Royal Oak Music Theatre on October 21, 2024 in Royal Oak, Michigan, United States. Cheney joined Vice President Harris for stops Monday in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. (Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images)
Alongside Cheney, her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney previously endorsed Harris, though the endorsement might not have the positive effect the campaign is hoping to have, one Michigander told the Caller.
“Here’s the new thing going around, people are saying that, ‘hello, she’s been endorsed by Dick Cheney.’ That tells you everything you need to know about this woman: that her intentions are war,” Vice chair of the 12th Congressional District Republican Committee Stephanie Butler, who is married to a Muslim, told the Caller.
— Alex Pfeiffer (@__Pfeiffer) October 21, 2024
Trump took to TruthSocial Monday to give a message to Arab and Muslim American voters ahead of the election on Harris’ Middle East policy.
“Arab Voters are very upset that Comrade Kamala Harris, the Worst Vice President in the History of the United States and a Low IQ individual, is campaigning with ‘dumb as a rock’ War Hawk, Liz Cheney, who, like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously go to War in the Middle East, also wants to go to War with every Muslim Country known to mankind,” Trump wrote.
“If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to war, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge. For our country’s sake, and for your kids, Vote Trump for PEACE!” the former president wrote.