CNN: Trump Doing Better with Independents Than in 2020 “That’s the Type of Movement Donald Trump Loves to See”(Video)
CNN’s Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten shared new data on how President Trump is doing with Independents in 2024 vs. 2020 and says the movement of Independents is just the type of movement “Donald Trump loves to see.”
Harry Enten: Center of the Electorate. You go last time around, Joe Biden won these voters by 11 points. You look at September of 2024, a month ago, Kamala Harris was up five points among independents.
You look now, though, look at this. She’s only up by two points among a key block, center of the electorate, down nine points from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign.
Of course, this is a national picture. This is a national picture. What is going on in those key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that blue wall, right? Joe Biden last time around, won them by five points over Donald Trump.
Look at where we are today. This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate, up by a point.
Now, of course, that’s well less than any margin of error, right? But again, it’s the movement, it’s the trends, Mr. Berman, that we’re looking at.
When you flip a group from going plus five Biden to now plus one Trump, that’s the type of movement Donald Trump loves to see. It’s the type of movement that I think gives Democrats some agita.
John Berman: You saw it nationally. You see it in the blue wall states there. What do we know about candidates who have won or lost independents in the past?
Harry Enten: Yeah. Are independents determinative of who wins the election? Usually, the way independents go, so goes the nation. So candidates who won independents in elections since 1952, look at this, won independents, won independents, won the election, 15, lost the election despite winning Independents, just three. So it is possible to lose Independents and win the election. But the bottom line is that’s only happened three three times. It was Nixon in ’68, it was Ford in ’76, and it was Kerry in 2004.
Normally, when you win Independents, John, it’s a very good sign for your chances to win the election.
John Berman: Do you have any sense among the people who are identifying as Independents now, what they’re saying or how they’re feeling or why we’re seeing this?
Harry Enten: Why are we seeing this movement in the electorate, perhaps away from the Democrats towards Donald Trump? And this is true overall. This is true among Independents as well. View as too liberal, right? Are you out of the mainstream, perhaps? 38% said that of Joe Biden back in 2020. Now that number is up to 48% for Kamala Harris versus the 40% or so who see Trump as too conservative.
The bottom line is, Harris may be a little bit too out of the mainstream, at least compared to Donald Trump when we’re talking ideologically speaking.
Watch:
Trump’s doing much better with independents than in 2020. Harris leads them by a smidge nationally. Trump ahead a little in MI, PA & WI.
Only Nixon 60, Ford 76 & Kerry 04 have won indies & lost.
Remember: voters are more likely to see Harris 2024 as too liberal vs. Biden 2020. pic.twitter.com/8GQM3oZ6tY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 23, 2024
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