Republicans weren’t supposed to have to worry about watching a favorable map slip through their fingers again. They whiffed on taking the Senate back from Democrats two years ago, and while they managed to seize the House, their time in control there has not gone to plan.
Things aren’t looking as dire as the flame out of 2022 turned out to be, but there are creeping concerns that what should have been a Democratic drubbing in the Senate is going to be a marginal victory at best, Congressional Reporter Ramsey Touchberry wrote for us this morning.
“Days away from a prime opportunity to retake the Senate majority, Republicans are staring down a reality where they could still squander their shot,” Ramsey wrote.
“There’s angst heading into Election Day among Republicans, who are questioning how deep their bench will be — or if they’ll even have control,” he noted.
A fight in Texas is emblematic of these concerns.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) isn’t exactly on the ropes in his bid to hold his seat and fight off Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), but he isn’t running up the totals an incumbent Texas Republican would expect to see against a relatively obscure Democratic challenger. An Emerson College poll this week showed Cruz beating Allred by just 1 point — an outlier, to be sure, though his average 4- to 5-point lead in other polls is reminiscent of a tough fight to fend off Beto O’Rourke in the same contest six years ago.
The problem for Republicans right now is that a surging Democrat who isn’t likely to win in Texas is getting close to equal air time as the GOP candidates going on offense in seven states they are poised to flip seats.
This year’s contests started with Republicans looking to go on offense in seven states where Democrats, or independents who caucused with them, had to play defense. Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) acknowledged the near impossibility of retaining his seat and announced his retirement, all but ensuring one seat swap next year. The races in Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Arizona are all tight contests, though some are slipping out of the GOP’s grasp.
“They should take it back. It’d be theirs to lose,” GOP strategist Rick Tyler told Ramsey. “But I don’t think it’s in the bag for them.”
One reason a path to the majority isn’t crystal clear is the poor performance of Kari Lake in Arizona. GOP strategist Barrett Marson told Ramsey the chances of Lake and Republicans beating Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in that race are “cooked.”
“She’s snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” Marson told Ramsey about Lake. “She has grabbed on to the ‘MAGA’ mantle and embraces it even tighter than a mama bear embraces her cub.”
It’s not all bad news, though. Tim Sheehy looks like he’s on a clear road to unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and challenger Eric Hovde are trading leads in Wisconsin, with Baldwin remaining the favorite despite her lead shrinking as Election Day approaches.
Click here to read more about the last-minute panic setting in for Republicans.
House hopefuls
Republicans might be running low on energy, joy, and hope not just because Vice President Kamala Harris has been using those tones but because Democrats generally are soaking up the good vibes as they eye taking back the House.
Democrats’ pangs of defeat two years ago were smoothed over by watching House Republicans devour themselves. A rocky start for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) turned into a historically bad end and a brutal task for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
Firebrands like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) continued to make life hard for Johnson, threatening to send him the way of McCarthy and take his gavel away.
The result?
“Democrats are feeling a renewed sense of ‘calm’ and ‘optimism’ about their prospects of taking back the House majority with only a matter of days until voters make their voices heard,” Congressional Reporters Samantha-Jo Roth and Cami Mondeaux wrote this morning.
“Only four seats are standing between Democrats and the speaker’s gavel, and the race for the House majority hinges on specific areas in states outside of the presidential battleground map, specifically in New York and California,” they wrote.
Relying on holding seats in the darkest blue parts of the country in a presidential election year is a tall task for Republicans. And Democrats know it.
“Without getting cocky but with some swagger — I have three words: Speaker Hakeem Jeffries,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic political strategist based in New York, told our crew. “The House was lost in 2022 in New York, and I think, two years later, it has a strong chance of being won. There’s a lot of optimism.”
That optimism isn’t just vibes, either.
“House Majority PAC has canceled planned buys in Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Kansas, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, pointing to new confidence that their once-vulnerable candidates are appearing to be stronger in the final days of the election,” Samantha-Jo and Cami wrote.
Click here to read more about why Democrats feel so good about their odds to win the House.
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For your radar
Harris is leaving Pennsylvania to travel to Georgia, where she will appear onstage with former President Barack Obama for the first time since she became the party’s nominee. The event will also feature Bruce Springsteen. Harris is scheduled to speak at 7 p.m. before traveling to Texas.
Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) is campaigning in Durham, North Carolina, in the morning before traveling to Greenville for an event at 3 p.m. and a rally in Wilmington at 6 p.m.
President Joe Biden is traveling to Phoenix, Arizona, at 3:50 p.m. He does not have any public events on his schedule.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will gaggle with reporters onboard Air Force One en route to Arizona.
Trump will hold a rally in Tempe, Arizona, at 4 p.m. Eastern time before traveling to Las Vegas, where he will participate in another Turning Point rally at 10 p.m. at UNLV.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is in Detroit, Michigan, to participate in a town hall event with NewsNation.