While former President Donald Trump hopes to win battlegrounds next week, he is going to some states outside the typical swing states as part of his campaign‘s closing pitch.
Over the weekend, Trump rallies in Salem, Virginia, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, were announced by the campaign and the New Mexico Republican Party, respectively. The former president’s schedule is filled with stops in battleground states in the closing eight days of the campaign, but it also has stops showing the campaign may want to move Democratic-leaning states into competitive contests.
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Neither Virginia nor New Mexico has voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, when then-President George W. Bush was reelected. Both have been rated as “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report.
Fewer polls have been conducted in New Mexico and Virginia than the swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia, but in the Real Clear Politics polling average in both states, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a clear advantage.
In the Old Dominion, Harris leads Trump, 50.2% to 43.8%, in the polling average, with an October Christopher Newport University poll showing Harris leading by as much as 11 points and a September University of Mary Washington poll showing Harris leading by as little as 2 points.
In the Land of Enchantment, the vice president holds a 50%-42.3% lead over the former president, according to the polling average, with only three polls taken since the middle of September, ranging from Harris with a 6-9 point lead, factoring into the average.
In both states, Republicans are seeking to flip key House seats in their bid to bolster their narrow majority in the lower chamber of Congress.
In Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Republican Derrick Anderson is seeking to beat Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman and flip a seat held by outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who is running for governor in 2025. In New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell is seeking to win back her seat from Rep. Gabriel Vasquez (D-NM), who narrowly defeated her in 2022. Both seats have been rated as “toss-up” contests by the Cook Political Report.
The rallies continue a trend of Trump going into heavily blue states during this campaign as he attempts to be the first president since Grover Cleveland to win nonconsecutive terms in the White House.
Trump made a trip to Virginia following his June debate against President Joe Biden, less than a month before the president dropped out of the race and Harris began her abbreviated campaign.
Earlier this month, Trump held a rally in Aurora, Colorado, focusing on immigration in the blue state. The Centennial State has been another target for Trump’s hopes of making deep-blue states competitive despite the state being considered “solid Democrat” by the Cook Political Report. The state does have a competitive House race in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, where Republicans are bullish on flipping a blue seat red.
The former president has also held multiple rallies in New York, his former home state, during the general election cycle. He held a rally in the Bronx in May and another at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan on Sunday, along with a rally in Uniondale on Long Island last month.
The Empire State is rated as a “solid Democrat” presidential contest by the Cook Political Report, even after a tighter-than-usual gubernatorial race in 2022. For 2024, the focus for Republicans in New York is on several key House races, including three GOP congressmen in either “toss-up” or “lean Republican” races for reelection.
The Trump campaign’s rally calendar through Friday has two rallies in Wisconsin and rallies in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. He also held a pair of rallies in Michigan and one rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend. As Election Day approaches, the campaign is expected to announce more events.
Harris’s campaign focused less on more solidly Republican states but did hold a rally in Texas on Friday with Beyonce. Texas is rated as “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report.
The vice president will make a campaign speech in a non-swing jurisdiction when she makes her closing pitch to voters at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. The District of Columbia has never voted for, or come remotely close to voting for, a Republican candidate for president.
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The election will likely come down to the results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Five of the seven battleground states voted for Trump in 2016 but then voted for Biden in 2020. North Carolina voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while Nevada voted for Democrats in both 2016 and 2020.