Iran has the capability to build a nuclear weapon and is prepared to reconsider its policy against pursuing one if faced with an existential threat, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned the rest of the world — especially Israel.
The comments from former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi come days after Israel carried out waves of airstrikes hitting multiple Iranian military targets on Oct. 26, in response to Iran firing about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1.
“If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine. We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard,” Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told the Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen. “We already have the technical capabilities to produce weapons; only a religious decree forbidding nuclear weapons prevents us from doing so.”
Israel and Iran’s tit-for-tat attacks in October were the first time the two sides attacked one another directly since they exchanged attacks in April, though they have indirectly been in conflict for much longer as Iran’s proxy forces in the region carried out direct attacks on Israel and Israeli forces have carried out operations against them.
The U.S. urged Israel to attack Iran proportionally in an attempt not to incur a new attack. While U.S. officials have said Israel’s response fit into their parameters, Iranian leaders have threatened to retaliate.
“Iran’s response to the Zionist aggression is definite,” said Gen. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, according to Iranian media. “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation.”
Iran’s two massive aerial attacks have largely been thwarted by Israel’s air defense systems and with the help of allies.
“I am hopeful that Iran will not retaliate,” Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, told the Washington Examiner. “They already threw the kitchen sink at Israel twice, and for the most part, were ineffective and were fortunate that Israel responded in such limited ways. They prefer what they do best, covert and proxy war, I think.”
Iran could choose to “do a pro forma attack,” in which they fire missiles like in April and October, knowing that they will likely not cause much damage, Mark Cancian, a senior adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner.
“If [Iran] really wanted to hurt Israel, it’s clear that launching missiles isn’t going to do it,” he said, adding that if they wanted to do so, it might include attacks on Israeli facilities overseas, like embassies or consulates, or attacks targeting Israeli tourists overseas.
If Iran does respond, Israel will likely follow it up with an escalatory attack that could go after Tehran’s nuclear or oil facilities.
Iran’s nuclear program has long been a source of international consternation. The Obama administration agreed to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2018, and the Biden administration came into office in 2021 hoping to revive it, though those hopes were dashed.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July that the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon “is now probably one or two weeks,” and he confirmed that it’s “resolutely” U.S. policy to ensure they must not get a nuclear weapon.
Iran is believed to prefer Vice President Kamala Harris compared to former President Donald Trump in next week’s election. Iranian leaders have vowed retribution for the U.S. assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020 under the Trump administration. The Department of Justice has made multiple arrests against people accused of planning such attacks.