Both the 2020 and 2022 midterm elections saw some significant delays in declaring a winner. President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory wasn’t solidified until the Saturday following Election Day. During the 2022 midterms, the House also took four days to be decided, while the Senate took a full eight.

According to 538, there are two key factors in determining when results will be returned. First, the actual tightness of the race, as opposed to the margin in the polls, will impact how quickly critical states can be called. Actual vote tallies are unpredictable, so there’s no real way to know just how tight this race is in advance.

2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE

For example, the Des Moines Register’s final 2024 poll, conducted last week and released over the weekend, showed a 7-point swing since September that gives Harris a 3-point lead over the former president among likely Iowa voters.

Trump won Iowa by more than eight points in 2020 and was leading Biden by nearly 20 points before this summer’s ticket switch. If Harris were to somehow win the state this cycle, Trump’s path to the White House would significantly change.

Secondly, the speed at which votes can be counted is determined by the total number of ballots cast by mail, which require additional levels of verification. Furthermore, each state, including the seven critical battlegrounds, all have different rules about when election workers can begin counting mail ballots, and when those early votes must be reported by.

Roughly 46% of the more than 155 million votes cast in the 2020 general election were by mail, and this cycle, nearly 69 million voters requested absentee or mail ballots.

The Harris campaign said in a memo over the weekend that they won’t expect results in the seven battleground states to be known until Thursday or beyond. The Trump campaign did not answer questions about their own timeline for when they expect votes to be counted.

Harris campaign officials expect most of the results from Georgia and North Carolina to be posted by Tuesday night, but warned that those results might be delayed if they are particularly close. 

The campaign also expects mostly complete results from Michigan and Wisconsin to be in by 6 a.m. EST Wednesday morning, and the majority of votes in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada to be counted later that day.

PATHS TO VICTORY FOR HARRIS AND TRUMP IN 2024

Campaign officials note that in Nevada, “ballots can continue to arrive through 11/9, and voters can cure ballots through 11/12.”

Furthermore, the campaign expects that “tens of thousands of provisional ballots will be counted starting 11/8” in Pennsylvania and some challenged ballots in North Carolina won’t be counted until Nov. 15.

“It will take a long time to count every single vote, and we can’t place too much stock in the early returns. The tally in certain states is going to change a lot as additional ballots are counted,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in an email sent to supporters over the weekend. “For example, some states that count absentee ballots first may start off blue and shift to red as time goes on. Those would be your Michigans and Pennsylvanias.”

There is a chance that Trump might declare victory before all the votes have been counted, like he did in 2020.

Toward that end, Harris has begun telling reporters that she has a team of lawyers ready to challenge the former president in court.

“Of course,” Harris said in an interview with NBC in October when asked if she thought Trump would declare victory early. “This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to undo a free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people, who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked.”

KEY CHANGES IN EACH SWING STATE THAT COULD DECIDE THE 2024 ELECTION

You can find a state-by-state breakdown of poll closing times below, in addition to any state laws that could delay results from being published:

ALABAMA

Polls Close: 8:00 pm EST

State law requires specific excuses for absentee voting, resulting in high rates of in-person voting. The majority of Alabama’s votes should be counted by election night.

ALASKA

• Polls close at 12:00 am EST 11/6 and 1:00 am EST in the Aleutian Islands

Alaska begins reporting results at 1:00 am EST, and the state’s Division of Elections will provide updates every half-hour until 3:00 am EST. The next update, including the majority of mail ballots, will be counted and announced on Nov. 12

ARIZONA

Polls Close: 9:00 pm EST

Arizona will not post results until all precincts have reported or 10:00 pm EST at the latest. After 10:00 pm, counties will begin counting and announcing mail ballot totals, but Maricopa County, a hotbed for voter fraud claims in 2020, said that it might take until 5:00 am EST on Wednesday to count and report all of the Election Day votes and potentially two weeks to count all of its mail ballots.

ARKANSAS

Polls Close: 8:30 p.m. EST

Arkansas consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

CALIFORNIA

Polls close at 11:00 pm EST

California will begin publishing results as soon as the polls close, but the state still accepts mail ballots through Nov. 12, so it will take at least a full week to tally all the votes.

COLORADO

Polls close: 9:00 pm EST

Election law requires Colorado counties to begin posting results one hour after the polls close, but election officials have warned that a full count could drag into the following week based on the sheer number of mail ballots.

CONNECTICUT

Polls Close: 9:00 pm EST

Connecticut consistently is able to report all of its results by election night, or the Wednesday after at the latest.

DELAWARE

Polls Close: 8:00 pm EST

Delaware consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

Polls Close: 8:00 pm EST

Most but not all results will be known on election night, as Washington, D.C., allows ballots to be received by Nov. 15, as long as they were postmarked by Nov. 5.

FLORIDA

Polls Close: 7:00 pm EST, 8:00 p.m. in the Western part of the state

Florida requires all early voting, both in-person and by mail, to be reported 30 minutes after polls close.

GEORGIA

Polls Close: 7:00 p.m. EST

State laws passed after the 2020 election require early votes to be counted and reported by 8:00 pm on Election Night. The state election office predicts posting 90% of all results to be posted by midnight on Election Night, with all remaining absentee ballots counted by 5:00 p.m. EST the next day.

HAWAII

Polls Close: Midnight EST

Hawaii reports its votes in three batches, with the first coming shortly after polls close, the second by 3:30 a.m. EST on Nov. 6, and the third sometime later on Wednesday.

IDAHO

Polls Close: 10:00 p.m. EST in the South, 11:00 p.m. EST in the North

Idaho consistently is able to report all of its results by the day after the election.

ILLINOIS

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Illinois reports its early voting numbers shortly after the polls close, but the state allows mail ballots to be counted through Nov. 19.

INDIANA

Polls Close: 6:00 p.m. EST in most parts of the state, 7:00 p.m. in the West

Indiana state law requires results updates to be published on the hour beginning at 8:00 p.m. EST through midnight. Results updates resume at 9:00 a.m. EST until the count is completed.

IOWA

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

Iowa consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

KANSAS

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST in most of the state, 9:00 p.m. in the West

Kansas allows mail ballots to be counted through Nov. 8, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

KENTUCKY

Polls Close: 6:00 p.m. EST in the East, 7:00 p.m. in the West

Kentucky consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

LOUISIANA

Polls Close: 9:00 pm EST

Louisiana consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday morning.

MAINE

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Maine uses ranked choice voting, which can delay counting by several days if neither Harris nor Trump wins a majority of the vote.

MARYLAND

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Maryland begins reporting results shortly after polls close, but the state still receives and allows mail ballots to be counted through Nov. 15.

MASSACHUSETTS

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. ET

Massachusetts may begin posting results on election night but is not required to do so until Nov. 8, the received cutoff for mail ballots postmarked by Election Day.

MICHIGAN

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. in the East, 9:00 p.m. in part of the Upper Peninsula

Newly enacted state laws allow Michigan to begin counting mail ballots before Election Day, and the state is expected to return all of its results by Wednesday.

MINNESOTA

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

Minnesota consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday.

MISSISSIPPI

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Mississippi allows mail ballots to be counted if received by Nov. 13, as long as they are properly postmarked.

MISSOURI

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Missouri consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

MONTANA

Polls Close: 10:00 p.m. EST

Montana consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday.

NEBRASKA

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

Nebraska typically reports nearly all its votes on election night, but the state election’s office will deliver an update on Nov. 8 followed by additional updates as necessary.

NEVADA

Polls Close: 10:00 p.m. EST

Nevada allows all voters waiting in line when the polls close to vote, and the state will not report any results until after those final votes are cast. Furthermore, the state allows mail ballots to be counted through Nov. 9, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Polls Close: 7:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. EST depending on the municipality

New Hampshire consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday.

NEW JERSEY

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

New Jersey allows properly postmarked mail ballots to be received and counted through Nov. 11.

NEW MEXICO

Polls CLose: 9:00 p.m. EST

New Mexico begins reporting results shortly after polls close, but if not all votes are counted by 1:00 am EST on Wednesday, the count must be paused until 11:30 a.m. EST.

NEW YORK

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

New York allows properly postmarked mail ballots to be received and counted through Nov. 12.

NORTH CAROLINA

Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST

North Carolina will report all early voting totals between 7:30 p.m. EST and 9:30 p.m. EST on election night, followed shortly after by Election Day totals. The state will continue to count provisional ballots, absentee ballots, and special ballots for voters in regions hit by Hurricane Helene over the following 10 days.

NORTH DAKOTA

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST in most of the state, 9:00 p.m. EST in the Southwest

North Dakota allows mail ballots postmarked by Nov. 4 to be received and counted through November 18.

OHIO

Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST

Ohio allows mail ballots postmarked by Nov. 4 to be received and counted through Nov. 9.

OKLAHOMA

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Oklahoma consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday.

OREGON

Polls Close: 10:00 p.m. EST in Malheur County, 11:00 p.m. EST in the rest of the state

Oregon allows mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be received and counted through Nov. 12.

PENNSYLVANIA

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

State law prohibits any mail ballots from being processed until Election Day, but once the count starts, it cannot stop until all votes are reported. State officials say they expect full results by Wednesday or Thursday.

RHODE ISLAND

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Rhode Island consistently is able to report all of its results by Wednesday.

SOUTH CAROLINA

Polls Close: 7:00 p.m. EST

South Carolina consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m EST. in the East, 9:00 p.m. EST in the West

TENNESSEE

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST

Tennessee consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

TEXAS

Polls Close: 8:00 p.m. EST in most of the state, 9:00 p.m. EST in the West

Texas cannot start counting early votes until after polls close, but the state also requires all Election Day voting to be tabulated 24 hours after polls close.

UTAH

Polls Close: 10:00 p.m. EST

Utah allows mail ballots postmarked by Nov. 4 to be received and counted through Nov. 19, depending on the county.

VERMONT

Polls Close: 7:00 p.m. EST

Vermont consistently is able to report all of its results on election night.

VIRGINIA

Polls Close: 7:00 p.m. EST

Virginia allows mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be received and counted through Nov. 8.

WASHINGTON

Polls Close: 11:00 p.m. EST

Washington allows properly postmarked ballots to be received and counted all the way up until Nov. 26 in some counties.

WEST VIRGINIA

Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST

West Virginia consistently is able to report all of its results on election night, though the state does allow properly postmarked mail ballots to be received and counted through Nov. 12.

WISCONSIN

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

Wisconsin does not allow absentee ballots to be processed until Election Day, which historically has delayed full results for up to a few days.

WYOMING

Polls Close: 9:00 p.m. EST

Wyoming consistently is able to report all of its results on Election Night or early Wednesday morning.

Emily Hallas contributed to this report