Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.4 points in North Carolina, an improvement from his performance in 2020 when he beat President Joe Biden by just 1.3 points. Election results also show Trump made some of his biggest gains in Pitt, Lenoir, Sampson, Duplin, Columbus, and Robeson counties, which are all known for their tobacco products.

While North Carolina is considered a battleground state, the state has historically benefitted Republican candidates, with Trump sweeping the state in 2020 as well. And as Trump won the state for a third time, and eventually swept the other six swing states in addition to North Carolina, in 2024, some pro-tobacco lobbyists think the issue gave him a boost in the Tarheel state.

“When looking at numbers in eastern North Carolina, we definitely saw a shift to Trump that was even better” than his 2016 and 2020 performances, Ray Starling, general counsel of the North Carolina Chamber, told the Washington Examiner.

Polls ahead of the election indicated black voters may be less likely to support Harris’s candidacy if she advanced any sort of restrictions on menthol cigarettes. One such survey conducted in mid-August by the Tyson Group showed a 13% drop in support for Harris among black voters in North Carolina if she supported the menthol ban.

Still, it’s not clear whether the issue played a significant role in voters’ decisions as polling has not been updated since the election last week. However, Starling and other campaign officials in the state say they believe it had a major influence on voters.

“The Biden-Harris anti-tobacco policies were a sleeper issue that resonated with both black males and farmers,” one GOP campaign strategist told the Washington Examiner. “Our polling shows this issue made a difference on the margins and in a close state like North Carolina, that can make a difference. Attacking tobacco was an unforced error by the Biden Administration and they paid a price on Election Day.”

Republicans had sought to tie Harris to the Biden administration’s support for a proposed menthol cigarette ban in an effort to win over black voters since shortly after she ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket. While campaigning, Harris did not explicitly state her stance on a proposed menthol ban, which played into the hands of Republicans who used the issue to attract voters in North Carolina, the country’s No. 1 tobacco-producing state.

The Food and Drug Administration first floated a proposal to implement a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars in spring 2021. However, the Biden administration has repeatedly delayed greenlighting the proposal due to pushback from certain voter groups — making it unclear when a final decision will be made.

Opponents of the ban have argued such restrictions would negatively affect the economy at a time when businesses are already dealing with rising costs and inflation. Cigarettes account for nearly 30% of all sales in convenience stores and over 10% of those stores’ gross margins, according to data from the National Association of Convenience Stores. Those numbers have contributed over $54 billion to the industry.

Strategists say the issue may have resonated with voters because it was “new information” that went beyond the oft-discussed issues of abortion, immigration, and the economy. 

Those strategists then pointed to the candidacy of Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents on election night. However, Davis survived his reelection fight — and notably, he was known for pushing back on the Biden administration’s proposed menthol ban. 

Starling even went so far as to say that although the issue may have just been a motivating factor in North Carolina, lawmakers could see that interest expand to other states with similarly big tobacco-growing counties. 

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“I think it resonated more here immediately,” Starling said. “Now over time, I think it ought to resonate everywhere for the same reasons we talked about.”

“North Carolina was the right place for this message,” he added, “because we feel it first.”