The EV Buyers’ Guide to an Uncertain Future

It’s a confusing time to be a prospective electric vehicle buyer.

On one hand, enthusiasm for the newer kind of powertrain is high. Nearly 60 percent of surveyed car shoppers told analytics firm J.D. Power earlier this year that they’re “overall likely” to consider going electric; 24 percent said they were “very likely.” EVs are definitely better for the environment, they generally cost less to maintain and fuel, and drivers report they’re very fun behind the wheel.

At the same time, that J.D. Power survey found that consumer demand for EVs has cooled compared to last year. Automakers have backed away from ambitious electric pledges as profits flounder and sales fail to tick up as quickly as they had hoped.

Now, president-elect Donald Trump seems poised to roll back many US federal supports for electric vehicles. Reuters first reported that officials with the incoming Trump administration are exploring how to nix the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit that first became available last year. For some EV buyers, the subsidy has helped bring down the prices of electrics compared to gas-powered cars—a crucial step, both automakers and environmental policy wonks have argued, in making the technology more attractive to US drivers.

But even Tesla CEO Elon Musk seems on board with scotching the tax credit. “Take away subsidies,” Musk wrote on X over the summer. “It will only help Tesla. Also, remove subsidies from all industries!” Tesla was a major beneficiary of an older tax credit program for electric vehicles. Last quarter, the company reported some $740 million in income from a carbon credit system administered by California and other states that allows other car manufacturers to purchase credits from the all-electric automaker.

Meanwhile, Trump’s threatened tariffs could raise prices on even autos made by US companies, which build some of their least expensive models in Mexico and Canada and purchase components from suppliers beyond the country’s borders.

Uncertainty abounds. So what’s an on-the-fence EV buyer to do? WIRED has compiled advice from auto experts on how to think about the coming months.

If You’re Sold on EV, Swipe That Credit Card

For those who really want to go electric but have been dragging their heels on making the big purchase, there may be no better time than now. “Your safest play is sooner than later,” says Ivan Drury, the director of insights at Edmunds, a US auto information resource. “There’s nothing pointing toward additional subsidies.”

The $7,500 tax credit does come with some caveats, which means buyers hoping to take advantage of a maybe-closing subsidy window should pay attention to the fine print. The credit is income capped and available only to taxpayers whose modified gross income—income minus some deductions—is below $300,000 for married couples filing jointly, $225,000 for heads of households, or $150,000 for single filers.

Only certain vehicles qualify for the credit. To be eligible, they must cost less than $55,000 for cars and $80,000 for trucks and SUVs. They have to be assembled in North America. To get the full $7,500 credit, the autos must contain batteries with components (cathodes, anodes, electrolytes) manufactured and assembled in the US, and critical minerals (lithium, graphite, and cobalt) mined and processed by the US or close trading allies. Meeting all of these is no small feat, as the continent scrambles to create domestic battery concerns to compete with dominant Chinese ones.

If this sounds confusing, and it is, the Department of Energy has a website that buyers can use to figure out specific make and model eligibility.

Consider the Lease

The on-the-fencers might also consider leasing an EV before the credit potentially goes poof. Leases are nice because they’re less of a commitment, and they serve as a nice perk for drivers yet to decide whether EVs, and their chargers, fit into their lives.

Another big advantage: The feds don’t apply some of the tax credit’s complex restrictions to vehicles purchased by fleet owners, which includes automakers’ finance divisions. So prospective EV drivers can use leases to access subsidized vehicles that don’t meet, for example, battery component or price requirements. In general, Drury says, leasing companies will pass the subsidies on to consumers as lower prices.

Finally, leasing allows drivers to dodge one of the great disadvantages of buying EVs right now: depreciation. EVs are depreciating more quickly than gas-powered vehicles, because their technology is improving so quickly and because automakers have slashed new vehicle prices. Leasing allows drivers to forget about that part of choosing an EV.

Edmunds data shows that, in October, 79 percent of electric vehicles acquired at dealerships were leased. Now, that figure doesn’t include EV makers who sell direct to consumers, including Tesla and Rivian, but still: Electric leases are hot—and might be a not-as-great deal soon.

EV hesitaters might also go for an even shorter experiment: rental. “Rent one for a week,” recommends Edmunds’ Drury. That’s probably enough time to figure out whether an EV is right for you.

If EVs Won’t Work for You Right Now, Wait

Most car industry observers agree: Despite what happens in the next US administration, electric vehicles aren’t going anywhere (so to speak). Global automakers face pressure to electrify from other governments and have already poured billions into battery and production-line development.

Cutting US subsidies for EVs may slow the cars’ development, says Drury. More sophisticated vehicles, including those with longer ranges, will come, though US policy actions are “going to push that date,” he says.

But if you want something really particular from an EV—a $25,000 price tag, a 700-mile range—“don’t rush to the dealership,” says Drury, “Don’t do anything out of pure fear.”

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