Everything to know about the McCarthy and Gaetz showdown heading to House floor this week

Tensions between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) have never been higher, setting the two up for a showdown this week following the speaker’s deal with House Democrats to avoid a government shutdown.

After passing a continuing resolution following weeks of infighting, McCarthy is now facing another battle from his own party: maintaining his speakership. Gaetz announced on Sunday that he would be offering a motion to vacate the speakership this week to remove McCarthy as leader, bringing forward some questions as to whether he has the votes and what the House would look like if he fails.

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Here is everything to know about the speakership showdown happening this week.

Why is Gaetz introducing a motion to vacate?

Rank-and-file Republicans have floated the idea of vacating the speakership if McCarthy went against their demands or collaborated with House Democrats to pass a clean continuing resolution — which he did. The CR passed the House 335-91, with Gaetz, 89 House Republicans, and one Democrat voting against the bill.

Gaetz, who is a vocal opponent to McCarthy, told Jake Tapper on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday that he planned to put forward a motion to vacate sometime this week.

“I think we need to rip off the Band-Aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy,” Gaetz said.

Does Gaetz have the votes?

Reps. Dan Bishop (R-NC) and Eli Crane (R-AZ) have indicated that they would support a motion to vacate McCarthy. Bishop was one of the first House Republicans to threaten to oust McCarthy following the debt ceiling compromise with President Joe Biden.

However, as of now, it doesn’t appear as though Gaetz has enough Republican support to vacate the speaker, as centrist Republicans and allies of McCarthy will not likely join his cause. The number of House Republicans expected to vote with Gaetz could roughly range from six additional McCarthy opponents to closer to the 20 holdouts who initially voted against McCarthy for speaker in January, according to a House GOP lawmaker via the Wall Street Journal.

Several House GOP lawmakers have expressed frustration with Gaetz’s calls to vacate the speakership.

“Matt Gaetz is a charlatan,” Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-IN) said Sunday on X, the website previously known as Twitter. “At least 200 House Rs will be voting to support the Speaker, including me.”

With the Republicans’ slim majority, the Florida representative will, ironically, need to garner support from House Democrats to vacate McCarthy. However, he said on Sunday that he will make “no deal with Democrats and concede no terms to them.”

“I actually think Democrats should vote against speaker McCarthy for free,” Gaetz said Sunday. “I don’t think I should have to deal them. … I don’t think that any Republicans that share my view on Speaker McCarthy would cut deals with Democrats.”

“If Democrats want to own Kevin McCarthy by bailing him out, I can’t stop them, but then he’ll be their speaker, not mine,” he continued.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said on Sunday she would vote to remove McCarthy but that she and her fellow House Democrats would need a “real conversation” between themselves and Republicans to receive Democratic support.

“I don’t think we give up votes for free,” Ocasio-Cortez said.

Who could replace McCarthy?

While the motion to vacate has a long way to go before it gains real traction, largely due to difficulties in finding an alternative, eyes are already on House Republicans who could fill the position.

Possible successors include House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-TN), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), and Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE).

The primary problem with some of these lawmakers as replacements is that they either support McCarthy or have privately declined any interest in the position. Emmer has dismissed any talks of replacement as “palace intrigue.”

Scalise’s position is unique to his colleagues, however, as he may be more focused on undergoing cancer treatment than holding the speakership. The House majority leader also made it clear in January during the speaker vote that he backed McCarthy for the position.

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How many times can Gaetz repeat his threat?

Part of McCarthy’s path to securing the speakership after 15 rounds of voting was a rule change he agreed to that allowed a single member to bring forward a motion to vacate.

The current House rules allow any one member, either Democrat or Republican, to introduce the motion. If it is introduced as a “privileged” resolution, the House must consider it at some point. Under former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), a majority of one party needed to sign on to the motion in support to bring the procedure forward.

There is no limit on how many times a motion to vacate can be brought forward — in fact, Gaetz threatened last week that he would bring up the motion every day if he had to. The Florida representative can bring a motion to vacate against McCarthy as soon as Monday, when the House reconvenes.

Leaders would then have to set a vote on the matter within two legislative days. The House could, however, vote to table the measure or refer it to a committee, both procedural votes that would prevent the lower chamber from having to weigh in directly.

The motion to vacate requires a simple majority to pass, so McCarthy could not afford to lose more than four votes.

What happens if Gaetz fails?

If Gaetz fails to vacate the speakership, the House is likely to move forward, business as usual. McCarthy has brushed off the threats from Gaetz and other fellow Republicans, saying, “I’ll survive.”

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“[Gaetz] is more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something. He wanted to push us into a shutdown, even threatening his own district with all the military people who would not be paid only because he wants to take this motion,” McCarthy said. “So be it. Bring it on, let’s get over with it, and let’s start governing.”

While there are some reports that a few GOP members may seek to expel Gaetz for his threats to McCarthy’s leadership, it is unlikely that any effort to remove Gaetz from the House will be successful. It takes two-thirds to expel a House member, and as with a motion to vacate McCarthy, it will be difficult to get a majority of Republicans on board.