How McCarthy’s removal as speaker could affect California Republicans ahead of 2024

Members of the House voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the House on Tuesday, putting the future of the Republican Party in his home state of California in jeopardy ahead of the 2024 elections.

Without McCarthy’s leadership position, some of the most vulnerable GOP lawmakers have lost a key connection to high-ranking Republicans, threatening their seats in a state known as a Democratic stronghold.

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Several congressional districts in California are expected to be highly competitive, including the following that are all currently occupied by Republican representatives: the 13th Congressional District, held by Rep. John Duarte (R-CA); 22nd, held by Rep. David Valadao (R-CA); 27th, held by Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA); 41st, held by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA); and 45th, held by Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA).

Each of the California GOP lawmakers rebuked the move to oust McCarthy, who became the first speaker in history removed from the job by a House vote. Following the vote, he said he would not try to become speaker for a second time.

“Speaker McCarthy has very solid support from the vast majority of the Republican conference,” Duarte said on Tuesday. “These are extreme chaos makers, and they are really derailing a lot of the good work that Speaker McCarthy has already led us through in this session.”

Duarte flipped the Democratic-held Northern California congressional seat in 2022, with McCarthy endorsing the farmer and businessman to defeat his Democratic opponent, state Assemblyman Adam Gray.

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McCarthy’s support could be a testament to the California Republican’s influence, as Duarte was able to narrowly take over a seat that was long held by Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) before she had to run in the 12th District due to the state’s redistricting.

While Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2006 and Democrats control both chambers, GOP strength still lies in rural, small areas of California where Republicans hold office. Republicans retaining control of the House could depend on the liberal state, but the GOP has been increasing its presence recently, flipping four Democratic seats in 2020 for the first time in two decades.