How Laphonza Butler can shake up California’s 2024 Senate race

Now that Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) has been sworn in as California‘s newest senator, two questions are on the minds of voters and lawmakers: Will Butler choose to run for a full term and how will that affect the 2024 election?

Butler was officially sworn in on Tuesday, replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who died on Sept. 29 at the age of 90. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) fulfilled the promise he made in 2021 that the next senator he appointed would be a black woman. Butler is a political operative and strategist who served on Vice President Kamala Harris‘s 2020 presidential campaign and, until Tuesday, was the president of EMILY’s List, a national Democratic PAC.

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With Butler’s ascension to senator, the question of whether she will throw her name in to run for a full term in 2024 has been asked. The field is already filling up with competition, as three California Democrats from the House have launched bids to replace Feinstein. Prior to her death, Feinstein announced she would retire and not seek reelection.

Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

Reps. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Katie Porter (D-CA), and Adam Schiff (D-CA) are all running in the California Senate race in 2024. California’s primary rules state that the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the general election — meaning two Democrats could face off in 2024. The seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands, but whose hands will greatly depend on the two candidates chosen to advance from the primary.

The newest Democratic senator told the Los Angeles Times on Saturday in her first interview since being appointed that she has not decided whether to run for a full term.

“I genuinely don’t know,” Butler said. “I want to be focused on honoring the legacy of Senator Feinstein. I want to devote my time and energy to serving the people of California. And I want to carry her baton with the honor that it deserves and so I genuinely have no idea.”

Her decision to either serve out 15 months as a senator or run for a full six-year term could affect the campaign strategies of the current Democratic candidates.

If Butler is a primary candidate, she would likely have the backing of EMILY’s List — a fundraising powerhouse in the Democratic sphere and an asset for Butler, as raising huge sums of campaign cash is a must in any statewide California race.

The deadline for her to decide whether she’ll enter the primary is March 8, giving her a significant amount of time to have an effect in the Senate and gather allies before making that decision. However, she’d need to file a candidate statement by Nov. 15 to be included in the information guide sent out by Newsom to registered voters.

Butler told the Los Angeles Times that Newsom did not ask about her future plans when he appointed her.

“He said to me that whoever he appointed, he intended to make it clear that he would expect them to do whatever they wanted to do regarding that,” she said.

AP

A Sept. 7 poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that Schiff and Porter led the way with 20% and 17% of the support, respectively, followed by Lee, who sat at 7%. Republicans Steve Garvey and James Bradley had 7% in the poll, and GOP candidate and attorney Eric Early sat at 5%.

In the poll, 51% of voters believed Newsom should appoint someone who is prepared to run for a full term in 2024, while a quarter of voters preferred the candidate stay as an interim senator.

The 2024 race could also shape up to be generational and based on experience. Voters older than 65 tend to favor Schiff, while votes under 50 and ages 18 to 29 and 30 to 39 tend to lean toward Porter. That could pose a problem for Porter, as she does best among those who, while considered likely to submit a ballot, often don’t show up when elections come around.

Enter Butler, who could appeal to minority and LGBT voters, as well as young voters. It’s likely that some of them will shift their vote to Butler, particularly if they see her make significant legislative strides for minority and women’s rights in the Senate — which she claimed to want to do in her statement announcing the appointment.

“No one will ever measure up to the legacy of Senator Dianne Feinstein, but I will do my best to honor her legacy and leadership by committing to work for women and girls, workers and unions, struggling parents, and all of California. I am ready to serve,” Butler said Monday.

Strategists believe that Porter and Schiff will still hold the power in the 2024 election given the substantial fundraising prowess of the two. Butler could pull together quick fundraisers, but it would be an uphill battle.

“I don’t care who you are, or how attractive you are as a candidate, or as a politician, or whatever,” longtime Democratic political strategist Garry South told the Los Angeles Times. “You cannot pull together a viable statewide campaign in a state like California in five months’ time, especially with the holidays in the middle.”

Lee is not to be ignored, however. Campaign focus groups and surveys conducted in September found that most California voters had little awareness of the 2024 election and that Lee “will likely only need 27% of the vote to place in the top two” to advance to the general election.

Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

Butler’s candidacy could also set up a competition for the small but influential voter bloc of black Democratic voters in California, which could significantly affect Lee’s chances. However, Lee would likely have the support of the members of the Congressional Black Caucus, who originally wrote to Newsom asking him to replace Feinstein with Lee, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign, which has a policy of backing incumbents or current members.

It is unclear how the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee would choose who to endorse, particularly if Butler decides she is running for a full term.

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Still, the impending race has not kept Butler from dolling out compliments to her fellow California Democrats.

“There’s at least three top-level Democrats that are in this race, all of whom have been running for a year and all of whom have been incredible public servants,” Butler told the Los Angeles Times, adding that she spoke with Lee after Newsom chose her this weekend.