Republicans have a chance to win in 2024 even as infighting sinks party’s approval

The number of challenges Republicans will have to tackle as the 2024 elections approach is piling up, but their path to victory doesn’t appear to be any harder than for Democrats.

The public’s view of the Republican Party has been consistently more unfavorable than favorable for years, but now Democrats hold a nearly identical share of negativity. A survey from CNN shows 52% have a negative impression of the Republican Party, up from 45% in December, while 50% view the Democratic Party unfavorably, up from 44% in December.

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Republicans have faced a particularly challenging year, with the new Congress beginning in conflict as it took Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) a historic five-day, 15-ballot floor vote to secure the speakership. Republicans could be ending the session the same way they started — in stark division. According to the CNN poll, 46% have an unfavorable view of the former speaker.

The House voted 216-210 to oust McCarthy more than a week ago. This week, members nominated Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) to go to the floor as their speaker-designee before he pulled out of the race on Thursday because he couldn’t win enough support. Republicans are weighing if Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is a viable option, but the chance of another marathon of public votes occurring appears likely as the Judiciary Committee chairman has alienated members permanently and left others undecided.

Republicans narrowly passed a short-term government funding bill, averting a shutdown and extending funding for 45 days, but that compromise, which relied on Democratic support, is what got the House into the current speakership mess it finds itself in. Without a speaker, the House can’t take up any legislative business until it elects a new one, and the potential for a government shutdown increases with every passing day.

While McCarthy worked with Democrats to pass the stopgap measure on Sept. 30, more respondents, 54%, have confidence in Republicans in the chamber than they do in President Joe Biden to handle the nation’s most pressing issues; 45% say they believe in Biden’s leadership and this number has not changed since this summer.

The growing conflicts within the House add to the struggles Republicans are already facing in state elections and the chaotic but predictable fight for a presidential candidate.

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On top of questions about good governance, Republicans also face a growing generation gap. The “Grand Old Party” is losing younger voters over issues such as abortion and firearm policies. A Harvard Youth poll released earlier this year shows 63% of respondents ages 18 to 29 believe gun laws should be made more strict. Another poll of registered voters from the spring by Marquette University Law School shows 75% of voters under the age of 30 opposing ending abortion rights.

The CNN survey found that respondents are angry with both major parties, with a similar margin between Democrats and Republicans. Overall, 58% of people say they are angry at how both parties are addressing the nation’s problems, with 15% only frustrated at the GOP and 13% only angry at Democrats.