U.S. Could See First Year of Negative Migration Since the 1970s
The U.S. may be heading for a year of negative net migration as President Trump ramps up deporations of illegal aliens.
Accoridng to a report from The Washington Post, various analysts and economists are expecting more people to leave the country than arrive.
Their article states:
Economists at two Washington think tanks expectPresident Donald Trump’s immigration policiesto drive this reversal: from the near-total shutdown of the southern border to threats to international students and the loss of legal status for many new arrivals,according to a forthcoming paper.A rise in deportations — the aim of recent workplace raids that triggered protests in Los Angeles and other cities — also plays a role.
A net outflow of immigrants could stoke inflation, a risk economists already expect from Trump’s tariff policies. It also could renew the type of labor shortages the country experienced during the pandemic. Longer term, it could even have implications for fiscal policy, with fewer immigrants paying taxes and supporting entitlement programs such as Social Security, said one of the economists, Wendy Edelberg.
For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” Edelberg said. “It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”
Edelberg and her colleague Tara Watson at the center-left Brookings Institution are working with Stan Veuger of the conservative American Enterprise Institute on the paper, which is due out later this month. Their projections point to an increased likelihood of negative immigration in 2025, compared with the economists’ last projections published in December.
For the first time in more than 50 years, U.S. immigration could go net negative in 2025—driven by sharp drops in legal inflows & increased deportations, say @BrookingsInst and @AEI economists. w/@LaurenKGurley https://t.co/EwLK9dK4Dy
— Andrew Ackerman (@amacker) June 15, 2025
The projections will be good news to the majority of conservatives who are concerned not only about the rise of illegal immigration, but also the unsustainable levels of legal migration.
Over recent years, legal immigration has ballooned due to increased use of work visas (like H-1B and H-2A), refugee admissions, and a backlog-driven surge in green card approvals.
In fiscal year 2023, over 1 million green cards were issued—one of the highest numbers in decades—while temporary visa admissions also soared.
Meanwhile, the Biden regime expanded humanitarian parole programs and family reunification channels, contributing to a sharp rise in legal pathways alongside record levels of illegal crossings.
You can email Ben Kew here, and read more of Ben Kew’s articles here.
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