The race to 217: What obstacles does Jim Jordan face for the speakership?

The House is set to reconvene for the first time in two weeks to vote on who will become the next speaker, with Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) hoping to shore up enough support among the GOP conference to secure the speaker’s gavel by the end of the day.

Lawmakers are scheduled to come to the House floor at noon on Tuesday, where members will give nominating speeches for their preferred candidates before beginning a roll call vote to elect its next speaker. In order to win the vote, any candidate must receive the majority vote of the members present and vote in the chamber at the time of the election.

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There are 433 members in the House of Representatives, as two seats became vacant earlier this year due to retirements in both parties, leaving 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats. That means to secure the majority, Jordan needs to secure at least 217 votes if all members are present on the floor.

As a result, Jordan can only afford to lose four votes as the Democrats are expected to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) — setting the stage for a multiround election similar to the one lawmakers experienced in January when it took McCarthy 15 rounds to secure the leadership position.

At least five Republicans have come out against Jordan, including Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Mike Kelly (R-PA), Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), and Mario Diaz Balart (R-FL). Another four have said they are leaning no, although they have not made a final decision: Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), Ken Buck (R-CO), Steve Womack (R-AR), and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA).

There’s also at least one expected absence on the GOP side for Tuesday, as Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) will be attending a funeral.

However, several initial holdouts, such as Reps. Ann Wagner (R-MO), Ken Calvert (R-CA), and Mike Rogers (R-AL), announced on Monday they had flipped their votes after speaking with Jordan and would support him on the floor — indicating some momentum in favor of the nominee ahead of the floor vote.

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Some Republicans have expressed confidence that the margin will continue to shrink once the motion is brought to the floor, suggesting that once members are put on the record, they’ll change their votes.

If successful, Jordan will assume the leadership position with just one month until the government is scheduled to run out of money. Both chambers of Congress are far from advancing all 12 of its appropriations bills.