Trump’s early dominance in Iowa pushing rivals out of state

Former President Donald Trump‘s position as the 2024 front-runner has not stopped his GOP rivals from campaigning, but his early dominance in Iowa could push other Republican presidential candidates to focus on other states.

With 90 days until the Iowa caucuses, Trump’s lead in polling and endorsements, as well as moves by candidates such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to establish themselves in later states, signals that Iowa Republicans may not be ready to consider an alternative to Trump.

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The former president has increased his presence in Iowa in recent weeks after laying low during the beginning of the primary race. His campaign has been holding several caucus commitment events in October and has announced additional events for the coming weeks.

In Iowa, Trump holds an average lead of 50.5% as of Thursday, according to FiveThirtyEight. His polling numbers far outpace those of Haley (9.8%), Scott (5.5%), and Pence (2.2%). Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who at one time was considered to be the prime challenger to Trump, only has an average of 17.4% in Iowa polls.

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Trump also secured a major Iowa endorsement on Monday when Attorney General Brenna Bird endorsed the former president during a campaign stop.

Bird broke with tradition to support Trump, as many higher-ranking politicians in Iowa typically stay neutral in presidential races out of respect for the Hawkeye State’s role as the first state to hold presidential caucuses.

While strategists agree that the caucuses are up for grabs in the state (Trump notably did not win the caucuses in 2016 but went on to win the presidency), other candidates are setting their sights on other battleground states such as Nevada.

Pence, Haley, and Scott have all filed to compete in Nevada’s Feb. 6 primary instead of the state’s Feb. 8 caucuses. In doing so, they will not be allowed to participate in the Republican Party-run caucuses, which comes at a cost — the state-run primary does not award delegates, but the party caucuses do.

However, candidates who win the state primary are likely to see a boost in news coverage and polling — something that could be more valuable in states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina than the number of delegates they’d receive from the Battle Born State.

Those taking part in the caucus include Trump, DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND).

Actions by fundraising camps are the biggest indicator that some GOP candidates may view Iowa as a lost cause. Trust in the Mission PAC, which is supporting Scott, recently canceled its $40 million advertising reservation for the fall, with PAC leaders citing the difficulties in chipping away Republicans from Trump’s circle.

“We are doing what would be obvious in the business world but will mystify politicos — we aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” PAC Co-Chairman Rob Collins said in a memo to donors. “This electorate is locked up, and money spent on mass media isn’t going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting.”

He added that the “Never-Trump field” will be “wasting money this fall” attempting to catch up to Trump’s ever-growing lead, but the move isn’t a signal of retreat. Scott’s campaign also dismissed any concern that his presidential bid was coming to an end.

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On top of all the polling and endorsements comes campaign fundraising, which is a large indicator as to where the 2024 presidential field stands. Trump’s campaign said it had nearly $36 million available to spend on the 2024 primaries after raising $45.5 million in the third quarter.

This is significantly larger than the funds taken in by DeSantis, who raised $15 million during the third quarter but only $5 million can be spent during the primary. Scott’s team said Monday that his campaign and political committees raised $5.92 million, ending the third quarter with $13.3 million cash on hand. Of that cash on hand, the campaign is able to use $11.6 million during the primary.