North Carolina lawmakers advance new maps that would give GOP three pickup seats in House

Lawmakers in the North Carolina Senate advanced a proposed congressional map that would redraw boundaries in a way that would position Republicans to pick up at least three House seats in 2024.

The state Senate Redistricting and Elections Committee voted to approve a map altering all 14 of the state’s districts, creating 10 districts that favor Republicans, three that favor a Democrat, and one that would be considered a toss-up. If adopted, the map would give Republicans a major advantage in the state, currently split 50-50 by Democrats and Republicans.

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The full state Senate is set to vote on advancing the proposal on Tuesday, later heading to the House for passage as soon as Wednesday.

If approved, the map would pose a serious threat to the incumbent Democrats, particularly Reps. Kathy Manning in the 6th Congressional District, Wiley Nickel in the 13th District, and Jeff Jackson in the 14th District, with all three races being moved from “toss-ups” to “likely Republican,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Rep. Don Davis in the 1st District is also considered vulnerable as his district has been moved from “leaning Democratic” to “toss-up.”

Hannah Schoenbaum/AP

“I think the maps represent overt political corruption,” Jackson told the Washington Examiner last week. “I think if more people in the state were following it closely, they would be extremely disappointed.”

Jackson said he’d “be surprised” if the maps are not met with some sort of litigation, maintaining that the current proposals are “not final yet.” It’s unclear whether Jackson intends to run for reelection, noting he would make a decision “once we know what the final map looks like.”

Either map, if approved, would give Republicans a major advantage heading into the 2024 cycle, especially as they seek to hold on to their slim majority in the House.

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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.

However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.