Biden and Trump court independent voters amid third-party threat

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, are competing for independent voters, though Trump has an advantage almost a year before next year’s election.

But Biden and his predecessor may also have competition from independent and third-party candidates of the likes of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West for the crucial voting bloc, which is likely to decide who is in the White House in 2025.

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A Suffolk University-USA Today national poll this week found Biden and Trump are tied with 37% support each in a four-man race with Kennedy and West. Kennedy’s 13% support disproportionately disadvantaged Trump, and West’s 4% support disproportionately disadvantaged Biden.

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos cited Biden’s age and inflation as considerations undermining his popularity, adding they are concerns that “aren’t going to go away anytime soon.”

“In the national poll we just released, Biden trails Trump 36%-33% among voter households earning less than $50,000, a demographic that should be a Democratic stronghold because it includes young people starting out in their careers and older people on fixed incomes,” Suffolk’s Political Research Center director told the Washington Examiner. “In 2020, it was Biden who won lower-income households by 11 points, 55%-44%.”

He said: “This colossal reversal is emphasized by the finding that lower-income households now trust Trump more than Biden on the handling of the economy by 51%-38%.”

Since lower-income households “feel the bite of inflation more acutely in a challenging economy,” young voters are prioritizing their personal finances over climate change, gun control, abortion access, and threats to democracy, Paleologos added.

“And older voters who can’t make ends meet are panning Bidenomics for now,” he said. “The most surgical solution would be an immediate aid package to the under $50,000 demographic, but that probably wouldn’t fly because it would be viewed as inflationary and Congress is paralyzed without a speaker and has a large backlog of to-dos, like aid to Israel, Ukraine, and border security. After that, they will focus on Hunter Biden, while the under $50,000 families will have to wait.”

More broadly, Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff contended polls, such as the Suffolk survey, underscore a “divided” country and an electorate “locked in by party and by person.”

“People are in their silos, and they’re comfortable being in their silos, and they’re not going to let any new information enter those unless it’s on a must-do basis, which is, like, what’s going on in the Middle East,” he said. “You may have some reassessment, but that doesn’t mean all of a sudden, [Biden’s] numbers are going to go soaring because he’s commander in chief.”

The problem for Biden and Trump is they are both disliked by independents, but those voters tend to break for Trump despite his baggage, according to Miringoff.

“That may have to do with a lot of things, perception of age being one of them and also who’s not in the White House,” he said of Biden and Trump. “If there’s anything people are grumpy about, that’s being currently laid at the doorstep of an incumbent.”

For Miringoff, Biden should workshop his messaging, particularly regarding the economy and “Bidenomics,” because he is “not seeing the results of that.”

“He’s going to have to make it a choice, but I would also be very surprised if, this time next year, the political landscape hasn’t changed,” he said. “We don’t know what’s really going to be driving people next October, and you have two candidates around 80 years of age, and stuff happens.”

Republican strategist Whit Ayres agreed the Biden-Trump polls are “a function of an evenly divided, polarized country, Biden’s age, coupled with a weak vice president, [and] Biden’s low job approval, both overall and on the economy.” The president’s RealClearPolitics average overall approval-disapproval rating is a net negative 13 percentage points, whereas his economic approval-disapproval is a net negative 22.5 points.

“The effect of a third-party candidate depends on who it is,” said Ayres, of North Star Opinion Research. “A left-winger like Cornel West would obviously hurt Biden more than Trump.”

Suffolk’s polling coincides with No Labels data circulated this week that found the third party’s best chance of influencing next year’s election is with a Republican at the top of a unity ticket and by investing in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. No Labels had been adamant it could win the contest outright, but the data suggest it is now adopting a swing state, electoral vote-blocking strategy, which could undermine Biden in Pennsylvania.

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Republicans are also mindful of the independent and third-party candidates. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), for instance, insisted Tuesday he would be a stronger general election contender against Kennedy than Trump because of his pandemic policies, especially his positions against former National Institutes of Health Director Anthony Fauci and lockdowns.

“He would hurt Trump way more than he would hurt any other candidate, and that makes it an even tougher, uphill battle when you start talking about states like Georgia, when you start talking about states like Wisconsin and Arizona, Nevada,” DeSantis said in New Hampshire. “We need to put our best foot forward here.”