If you’re planning a romantic Valentine’s Day dinner out in the town, you may want to consider the weather. The forecast is shaping up to be sub-par across a large portion of the United States from late this week through the lover’s weekend.
For millions of people, Valentine’s Day could end up being a complete washout courtesy of snow and rain, according to The Weather Channel. (RELATED: More Snow Headed For Northeast, New England As Active Winter Pattern Continues)
Although some specifics remain uncertain at this stage, the current outlook suggests the system will deliver more rain than snowfall to the impacted areas.
The Daily Caller will outline what is known so far, and will refine the forecast as more details emerge in the days ahead.
FRIDAY
The system is expected to begin organizing over the Southwest as a low-pressure center moves eastward along the southern tier of the nation.
The primary focus will shift Friday to a broad swath from the Four Corners region through the Southern Plains.
The potential for wintry precipitation will be active across the Southern Rocky Mountains, with a chance of a rain-snow mix extending south to New Mexico and Arizona. There will also be the possibility for showers from southern Arizona into Arkansas. The most rainfall is forecast in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, where multiple thunderstorms could also develop.
SATURDAY
While the storm progresses east Saturday, the forecast grows increasingly uncertain regarding the precise location, type and amount of precipitation — whether rain, a wintry mix or snow.
Saturday’s impacts could potentially be widespread. Rain is possible from the Deep South up into parts of the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with a chance of thunderstorms primarily along the Gulf Coast.
The weather setup comes at a busy time as millions of couples are planning Valentine’s Day outings, while over a million people are anticipated to line the New Orleans streets for Mardi Gras parades this upcoming weekend.
A storm system is expected to form Valentine’s Day weekend, perhaps over the Mississippi Valley. It will likely track through the South and perhaps the Southeast and/or Mid-Atlantic.
It will likely bring some severe weather risk on its warm side, with the chance of damaging wind… pic.twitter.com/3WSth86J5b
— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) February 9, 2026
The region has been dominated by warmer-than-average temperatures this week, so the outlook for Saturday currently favors all-liquid precipitation, as conditions are not expected to be cold enough for snowfall.
That said, the situation could shift overnight.
SUNDAY
Sunday is shaping up to possibly be the most significant day of the system’s life, with precipitation expected to cover nearly the entire region to the Mississippi River’s east.
Heavy rainfall is possible across a wide swath, stretching from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms could also develop in the Southeast.
As the storm interacts with colder air, winter precipitation becomes possible in the Snow Belts and potentially farther through the Northeast.
People driving along the heavily traveled Interstate 95 corridor should stay closely tuned to forecast updates. There is a realistic chance that snow or a wintry mix could affect areas from Washington, D.C., up through Boston.
EXPLAINING THE UNCERTAINTY
As previously mentioned, the forecast carries a considerable amount of uncertainty. There’s confidence that winter weather is on the way, but pinpointing exactly where will experience which type of precipitation remains the biggest obstacle,
The source of the uncertainty lies in the low-pressure system’s precise track — specifically, how far north or south it ultimately moves.
A more northerly track would allow the storm to interact with colder air masses, increasing the likelihood of significant ice and snow across cities in the north. (RELATED: Disaster Declarations For Tennessee, Mississippi Approved By President Trump Following Historic Winter Storm Fern)
Conversely, a more southerly path would place the system in warmer air, shifting the precipitation type toward a predominantly rain-heavy event rather than one dominated by snow or ice.
No matter the final track, residents across the eastern half of the United States should strongly consider an alternative for outdoor activities this weekend.