Trump and Biden in virtual tie while RFK Jr pulls 22% support in new poll

Nearly one month since the war between Israel and Hamas began, a conflict that has highlighted fierce tensions among Democrats and Republicans, the 2024 primary and general election race remain unchanged, according to a new poll with a new exception — independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A Quinnipiac University national poll released on Wednesday showed that in a hypothetical matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 47% of voters support Biden, while 46% support Trump, a virtual tie and within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

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However, in a general election matchup including Kennedy, Biden’s support drops to 39%, Trump’s support drops to 36%, and Kennedy receives 22% support, suggesting that Kennedy, who first ran as a Democrat, would harm Trump more than Biden in a three-way race.

“Trump goes to war with the American legal system, while Biden wrestles with military conflicts on two fronts. Despite the swirling tumult, the partisan criticism, and rancor, the two candidates are still as tied as tied can be,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said.

Independents were more likely to support Kennedy at 36%, compared to Trump at 31% and Biden at 30%. “With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Malloy added.

Trump, the GOP front-runner, continued to dominate his rivals, receiving 64% support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) received 15%, with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 8%. Three other candidates — Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy — all received 3% support.

In a Democratic primary matchup, Biden received 77% support, besting Marianne Williamson at 8%, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) at 6%, and political commentator Cenk Uygur at 2%.

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Despite the tensions of the war in the Middle East, Biden hasn’t lost support amid Democratic disagreement over support for Israel as it continues a ground invasion of Gaza. Trump’s legal drama has not hurt in polls. The Quinnipiac poll is another piece of evidence the GOP base is willing to stick with the former president.

The poll also suggests that Trump’s rivals’ attacks on his comments on Hezbollah and his foreign policy stances are not making an impact on lessening Trump’s popularity.