Trump’s Iran TACO Gambit – Feint and Move and Win

When protesters were being killed in Tehran in early January 2026, President Trump threatened strikes, telling Fox News he had “put Iran on notice” and that if the regime shot at demonstrators, the U.S. would hit Iran “very hard.” The Iranian diaspora and protesters were energized. Then Trump said he had been informed the killing had stopped and that executions of arrested protesters would not take place, citing “very important sources on the other side.”

His detractors seized on the apparent stand-down, repeating the acronym TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out, which had gained prominence after his tariff reversals in 2025 and was extended to foreign policy based on claims that Trump had threatened force against adversaries 22 times but followed through on only two occasions. Senate Minority Leader Schumer publicly deployed the label, a move counterproductive enough that a coalition of more than two dozen anti-war organizations wrote him a letter urging him to delete the video and give Trump diplomatic space.

Throughout February, Trump struck a belligerent tone at the State of the Union while Iran’s negotiating delegation headed to Geneva for a third round of nuclear talks. Then, on February 28, the United States and Israel struck.

A senior Israeli official told Fox News that Khamenei had spent millions of dollars and years building an underground bunker, which he did not use on the morning of the strike. Sources familiar with the intelligence said Khamenei believed no one had the guts to strike him.

His confidence was partially the product of a deliberate Israeli-American deception plan that included messaging, signals, and public statements by Trump suggesting nothing immediate was coming. Khamenei and nearly 50 senior regime leaders were gathered at a compound in Tehran, where they were killed in under 50 seconds during the opening strike of Operation Epic Fury.

The operation relied on years of surveillance, including Tehran’s traffic camera network, which had reportedly been hacked years earlier, giving analysts real-time visibility into movement patterns around locations connected to Iran’s leadership.

Kari Bingen, CSIS Vice President for Defense and Security and Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program, described the result as an intelligence success “particularly at the tactical and operational levels,” crediting the U.S.-Israel intelligence relationship that had already demonstrated its precision in the Hezbollah pager operation and Operation Rising Lion.

Heritage Foundation Vice President Victoria Coates said critics “were predicting the president wouldn’t act, he was being tricked by the Iranians. Absolutely not. He was getting everything in place that he needed to execute this extraordinary strike.”

Speaking at a CSIS event on March 5, 2026, Bingen said the operation represented a major intelligence achievement. She explained that it was “an intelligence success, particularly at the tactical and operational levels,” crediting Central Command, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the broader intelligence community.

She added that the United States has maintained a longstanding intelligence partnership with Israel, which possesses significant capability against Iran and its proxy forces. She noted that the partnership had already demonstrated its effectiveness in the Hezbollah pager operation and Operation Rising Lion, which targeted Iranian military leadership and command-and-control structures with precision.

The TACO narrative, amplified by media and political critics, appears to have functioned as operational cover. Iran’s leadership was lulled into a false sense of security because they, like Trump’s domestic critics, believed he would not follow through. That miscalculation cost Khamenei and nearly 50 senior regime figures their lives in the opening seconds of the war.

The defense minister, army chief of staff, and IRGC commander-in-chief were killed in a separate strike on a defense council meeting. The Supreme National Security Council headquarters was destroyed. Also killed in the opening salvo were top security adviser Ali Shamkhani and IRGC commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour.

On March 3, U.S.-Israeli strikes hit the Assembly of Experts’ offices in Qom during an emergency session convened to select a new Supreme Leader. Under IRGC pressure, Mojtaba Khamenei was elected the new Supreme Leader, though his legitimacy is contested given his lack of religious credentials and the coercive circumstances of his election.

By the end of Day 7, CENTCOM and CBS News confirmed 43 Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed. At least seven moored warships were lost at two bases. The entrance to an underground naval facility in the Strait of Hormuz was also struck. Significant losses were recorded at Konarak naval base, where three warships sank at the pier and at least eight buildings were destroyed or damaged.

In the 72 hours preceding Day 6, U.S. bombers struck nearly 200 targets inside Iran, including around Tehran. In the final hour of that briefing, B-2 bombers dropped dozens of 2,000-pound penetrator bombs targeting deeply buried ballistic missile launchers.

The initial phase struck roughly 200 Iranian air defense systems, enabling the United States and Israel to establish effective control of Iranian airspace from western Iran to central Tehran within 24 hours. CENTCOM stated that the skies over Iran are now controlled by the United States and Israel.

By Day 7, CENTCOM confirmed strikes on 27 Iranian military bases and missile positions. Targets struck across all 31 provinces included IRGC command-and-control facilities, nuclear-linked underground facilities, ballistic missile sites, anti-ship missile sites, and air defense systems.

CENTCOM confirmed the destruction of the IRGC headquarters in Tehran on Day 2. Day 7 strikes focused heavily on buried ballistic missile launch infrastructure, with B-2 bombers delivering penetrating munitions consistent with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator profile.

For someone who allegedly always chickens out, President Trump has made some of the boldest moves of any president in U.S. history.