Too close to call: Biden memo reveals how campaign thinks 2024 race will go

President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign revealed it believes the presidential election will be “very close,” but it is confident in getting across the line.

In a memo to interested parties, Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote, “We expect this to be a very close race,” but said there are multiple routes to 270 electoral votes for the president. Additionally, she said, “The fundamentals of this race show our campaign is in a strong position to win.”

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One thing Chavez Rodriguez highlighted is “MAGA extremism,” which she said is proving to be “a significant barrier to victory for the GOP in key battleground states.”

She further pointed to the failed “red wave” of 2022 when “midterm voters punished extreme MAGA Republican candidates,” even when the national environment “was ripe for Republican gains.” She specifically used the examples of Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and John Fetterman (D-PA), who edged out Republican opponents in tough races.

With an opponent plagued by the “MAGA” slogan, Biden has “an opening to grow among independent and right-leaning voters who are particularly motivated by Republican attacks on reproductive rights,” according to Chavez Rodriguez.

In a June poll of attitudes toward abortion, 80% of people were against a federal limitation on abortion, something several 2024 Republican candidates have committed to. Only 14% supported the prospect. Even 65% of Republicans said they didn’t want a federal ban, as well as 83% of independents. One of the most pivotal swing voter blocs, independent women, said they became more supportive of abortion access in the year since Roe v. Wade’s overturn, by a margin of 28% to 5%.

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The independent women vote is not the only bloc Biden’s campaign is hoping to capture. Chavez Rodriguez explained the campaign is working to maintain support among several racial and ethnic minority groups, as well as suburban voters who are “turned off by MAGA Republican extremism.”

One advantage for Democrats one year out is the contested GOP primary. She noted that Republicans are burning “through resources” while the Biden campaign “is leveraging a united Democratic Party and strong Democratic National Committee to build a strong, innovative operation ahead of the general election.”