Biden steers clear of Virginia before bellwether election

Next week’s off-year elections could provide a preview of 2024 for President Joe Biden, regardless of whether he faces former President Donald Trump in 12 months.

Besides Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D-KY) gubernatorial campaign, Ohio’s abortion referendum, and Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court race, it is Virginia’s general assembly elections that could prove to be the most predictive for next year. That is because of their potential to be an indictment on Biden’s presidency amid speculation Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is considering a last-minute bid for the Republican nomination — and there are no plans for the incumbent to stump there.

HALEY SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE DESANTIS HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE AT THIRD GOP DEBATE

Biden appearing in Virginia before Tuesday would only remind voters of the “choice” being presented to them, according to Ken Nunnenkamp. The executive director of Virginia’s Republican Party cited a Washington Post-George Mason University poll from last month.

“While 54% of Virginians approve of the job Gov. Youngkin has done — a record high for a Virginia governor since 2013 — just 43% of Virginians approve of Joe Biden,” Nunnenkamp told the Washington Examiner. “While Virginia Republicans stand behind Gov. Youngkin’s popular, common-sense agenda, Virginia Democrats have continued to double down on failed policies pursued by radical left-wing Democrats in Washington.”

Dan Palazzolo, interim dean of the University of Richmond’s School of Arts and Sciences, agreed Biden’s low approval ratings undermine him as “an asset” to Democratic candidates in competitive elections. Nationally, Biden’s average approval-disapproval is net negative 15 percentage points, 41%-56%, per RealClearPolitics, as he experiences tensions, even with blue state governors, regarding, for instance, immigration. Biden did outperform Trump in Virginia by 10 points in 2020, 54%-44%.

“Both parties are trying to mobilize their party bases, but in the close contests, the candidates need to appeal more broadly to independent voters,” Palazzolo said. “I don’t see how [Biden] could be helpful to Democratic candidates in this election.”

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, underscored the fundraising message Biden wrote on behalf of Virginia Democrats this week, complementing former President Barack Obama‘s robocall. But he also conceded Biden’s poll numbers “are not good.”

“I doubt it’s anything different than what is afflicting him nationally,” Kondik said. “Near the end of the 2021 campaign, Biden did an event for Terry McAuliffe in Arlington. If this was a true statewide election, I could see an event in a deep blue place making some sense. But it’s a district-by-district race, and the key districts are outside of the really blue — or red — places.”

McAuliffe distanced himself from Biden during his campaign against Youngkin, a race defined by the economy and education, admitting on what he assumed was a private phone call that the president was a political liability for him. But Youngkin’s success did not precipitate a red wave last year.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre redirected questions concerning Biden’s campaign schedule before Tuesday to the Democratic National Committee, which said it had spent $1.5 million on Virginia Democrats this election cycle, 15 times more than in 2019, in addition to other forms of support.

Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spokesman Abhi Rahman, too, contended his party overperformed expectations for the 2022 midterms and has “won every special election so far in 2023.”

“Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating, according to Morning Consult, ranks 37th out of 50 governors, so it’s kind of the pot calling the kettle black for them to say anything about President Biden,” Rahman said of Republicans and the July poll. “President Biden is a proven winner … The results are what matters, and, so far, the results have shown a pretty consistent thing.”

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas all have state-based elections on Tuesday. Ohio’s abortion referendum and Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court race, too, will likely be harbingers for next year as Democrats amplify reproductive rights after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

In a year-out memo, Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez argued polling and focus groups found the president’s message of “building on our progress to finish the job remains a winning one for mobilizing our base and persuading undecided voters.”

“We expect this to be a very close race, but recent strong Democratic performances in every battleground state — and President Biden and Vice President [Kamala] Harris’s win in 2020 — demonstrate that the president has multiple paths to earning 270 electoral votes next November,” Chavez Rodriguez wrote. “In 2024, an extreme MAGA Republican opponent presents our campaign with an opening to grow among independent and right-leaning voters who are particularly motivated by Republican attacks on reproductive rights.”