Could Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’s endorsement give DeSantis the boost he needs?

Gov. Kim Reynolds‘s (R-IA) coveted endorsement of Ron DeSantis (R-FL) gave the Florida governor a needed boost in the critical first caucus state, but questions remain if it will be enough to revive his White House bid.

Reynolds has attended multiple campaign events with DeSantis and his wife, Casey, in the Hawkeye State, and the Florida governor’s 2024 campaign has leveraged its apparently close relationship on various occasions on the trail. But the Iowa governor held off on making any endorsement, particularly given Iowa’s status as first in the nation Republican caucus state, until Monday night.

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Former President Donald Trump, who holds a commanding lead in Iowa and nationally, has feuded with Reynolds and claimed her backing DeSantis would end her career in politics. Despite his digs at the popular GOP governor, Iowans have continued to favor Trump.

But her endorsement of DeSantis could start to chip away at his lead if coupled with her political operation.

“When she makes an endorsement, and especially something as important as [a] presidential endorsement, she’s probably going to be out on the stump helping DeSantis,” Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said, noting Iowans are watching the race more closely during this “crunch time.”

Hagle also suggested Reynolds will provide organizational resources to DeSantis, which could be particularly valuable on the ground in Iowa.

Iowa-based Blaze Media podcast host Steve Deace, who has endorsed DeSantis, said, “This far out, this tells me that she plans to fully engage the campaign trail for DeSantis, which is a formidable boost to his chances.”

According to Deace, the endorsement will sway some voters still in the decision-making process.

One Iowa-based Republican strategist predicted, “It might really kick-start him.”

One immediate benefit to DeSantis could be fending off former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s rise in several early state polls, Hagle said. The timing of the endorsement is notable as it comes just before Wednesday’s third GOP presidential debate, where Haley could be poised for another formidable performance.

Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of the Family Leader, a prominent and socially conservative Iowa organization, called Reynolds’s endorsement “significant.”

Reynolds “is without question Iowa’s most popular governor in generations. Combine her popularity with her campaign tenacity, and she will be a force for [DeSantis],” Vander Plaats said.

Barbara Hames-Bryant, president of the Iowa Federation of Republican Women, said, “I do think it will influence voters,” adding that Reynolds is widely respected and well liked.

A source familiar with the plans confirmed the Iowa governor will accompany DeSantis to an event in Davenport, Iowa, on Tuesday following the endorsement before heading to Miami, where the two will attend a pre-debate fundraiser.

Such an endorsement, as Haley is climbing in the polls, could come across as a snub, but a source familiar with Reynolds’s thinking said that isn’t the case.

“Kim Reynolds and Ron DeSantis spent a lot of time in the same COVID-19 bunker getting attacked by the national media. And I think that that’s a bonding experience,” the source said.

“She’s very aligned with him on policy. … She genuinely thinks that he’d make a good president,” the source added.

Reynolds’s choice to endorse DeSantis isn’t a death sentence for Haley, said one Iowa Republican strategist.

For the former ambassador, the plan is to “make Iowa competitive,” finish in at least second in New Hampshire, and try to defeat Trump in South Carolina, the strategist said.

“I still feel like her argument is strong,” the strategist continued, claiming she’d still have opportunities to take on Trump outside Iowa.

Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt suggested the endorsement will help DeSantis siphon some support from Haley. “It may shift to DeSantis some support from Haley and some of the remaining lagging contenders who are still in the race,” he said.

As for Trump, “His base is solid,” Schmidt said.

According to the Iowa Republican strategist, however, Reynolds’s endorsement of Trump’s opponent might spell trouble for the former president. “He’s still in the low 40s In Iowa, New Hampshire. That’s not great, especially when the field does appear to be consolidating,” they said.

Republican strategist Alex Bruesewitz, who supports Trump, noted DeSantis is too far behind the front-runner. “Kim Reynolds has been promoting and campaigning with Rob DeSantis for months now. Over that time period, DeSantis has dropped like a rock,” Bruesewitz said, mocking the Florida governor’s first name.

“A formal endorsement from Reynolds won’t save his dying, pathetic campaign,” he added.

Polling done on behalf of Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and obtained by the Washington Examiner showed an endorsement from Reynolds only shifting the race by a net 4 percentage points for DeSantis. In the poll, Trump still bested DeSantis 42% to 20% in Iowa with a hypothetical Reynolds endorsement.

One venue DeSantis is expected to tout the endorsement is on the Wednesday Republican National Committee debate stage in Miami, where he has something of a home-field advantage. Trump will not attend the event.

The endorsement came at a critical time for DeSantis. If he performs well at the debate, it could provide him significant momentum in Iowa, Hagle said.

“It’s always good to head into a debate with some good news to tout,” the Iowa GOP strategist added.

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The Florida governor’s campaign recently opted to move a third of its staff to Iowa and also launched its television ad campaign in the state earlier than planned on Nov. 1, in addition to the $2 million in reserved airtime through the caucuses.

“If he can catch a little bit of a wave here … he’s got potential,” the strategist said. “That’s the DeSantis sales pitch.”