Johnson faces first test in averting shutdown amid conservative resistance

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is set to face his first real test of leadership on Tuesday as he seeks to get his temporary spending plan through the House — treading the same waters his predecessor faced in funding the government that led to his ouster.

The House is set to vote on Johnson’s proposed continuing resolution on Tuesday, which would maintain current spending levels with no cuts and delay the appropriations deadline until early next year. The approach would implement two separate deadlines for the 12 annual appropriations bills, extending the bills for Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; Transportation, Housing and Urban Development; and the Energy and Water appropriations bills until Jan. 19. The remaining bills would be extended until Feb. 2.

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The vote comes just days before federal funding is scheduled to lapse on Friday, after which the government will enter a temporary shutdown if lawmakers can’t pass legislation to continue current spending levels or some other spending agreement.

However, several House Republicans have already come out in opposition to Johnson’s plan, objecting to his proposal to maintain current spending levels set by Democrats last year without implementing some sort of budgetary cuts. At least eight GOP lawmakers have said they’ll vote against the CR, putting Johnson in a bind as he can only afford to lose three Republicans due to his slim majority in the House.

That is, of course, unless he relies on Democrats to help push the measure across the finish line.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters on Monday that Democrats have “zero intention to vote for the rule.” Meaning that the legislation would likely be blocked as enough Republicans announced they would vote against the rule to tank the bill on a procedural motion.

As a result, according to House Majority Steve Scalise’s (R-LA) daily schedule, the bill will go on the floor under suspension. In doing so, Johnson can avoid the spending package being killed in a procedural rules vote and instead expedite the process to a full vote.

The caveat is that in order for legislation to pass under suspension of the rules, it must garner a two-thirds majority — meaning Johnson would need to rely on more than 70 Democrats to back the CR. Ironically, this exact scenario played out when the House passed its CR in September, leading to Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) loss of the speaker’s gavel.

“Just cause we have a new speaker who conservatives are more likely to trust doesn’t mean conservatives will blindly vote to keep Nancy Pelosi’s spending levels with a clean CR,” a senior GOP aide said.

Some Republicans have already pushed back on that strategy, spelling trouble for Johnson should he move forward with that plan.

“That would be a very bad idea,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). “We should not be suspending the rules to spend whatever $1.6 trillion is divided by 60 to 75 days. That should be a no-go.”

“I think it’s a very big mistake to walk into this saying you’re going to create something that’s going to go pass with significant Democrat support and, frankly, a whole lot of opposition with your own conference,” he continued. “That’s where this is headed.”

It’s not yet clear whether Democrats are willing to give Johnson that lifeline, but party leaders did leave the door open to the possibility on Monday. In a Dear Colleague letter sent to lawmakers, Democratic leaders noted they were still “evaluating” the CR proposal and “discussing it with members.” However, sticking points remain for party leaders, they said.

“While House Republicans have abandoned a laddered funding approach with multiple expiration dates, we remain concerned with the bifurcation of the continuing resolution in January and February 2024,” the letter states. “In addition, the failure of House Republicans to address the national security and domestic supplemental funding priorities of the American people is also troublesome.”

Meanwhile, the Senate has dropped plans to move forward with its own CR proposal, indicating a growing sense of agreement among Democrats to support Johnson’s plan so long as it maintains current spending levels and doesn’t attach any policy riders.

“We are pausing on our plans to move forward on a Senate vehicle to allow the House to move forward with their proposal,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Monday. “I hope the speaker continues to acknowledge that he will need Democratic votes in both chambers if he wants to avoid a government shutdown. He needs to stay away from poison pills and steep hard-right cuts to make that happen.”

This means the House bill is likely all there is to avoid a government shutdown, but skepticism remains that, even if this bill passes, Congress can pass appropriations bills in the time allotted to ensure there is not a mini-shutdown come Jan. 19.

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And, if Congress fails to pass the appropriations bills by the time necessary, Johnson has said he is done with short-term continuing resolutions and will move to implement the most “painful version” of a year-long stop-gap measure that would implement an 8% cut across the board to non-defense spending.

But, he would still have to get that measure to pass both chambers, which many members don’t believe it can. This would lead to either a long-term shutdown, an omnibus, or another short-term continuing resolution, which would put the government in the same position it’s continued to find itself in.