Mike Johnson’s big shutdown win paves the road for a bumpy New Year

The House passage of a continuing resolution on Tuesday may help Capitol Hill avoid a government shutdown this week, but it is setting up for across-the-aisle battles between Democrats and Republicans and party infighting among the GOP in the New Year.

All Democrats joined a majority of Republicans in voting for House Speaker Mike Johnson‘s (R-LA) two-step stopgap spending measure, which passed 336-95. It had no spending cuts or conservative policy riders, drawing approval from the Democrats, who believed the CR was flawed but necessary.

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However, Congress is not yet done with its responsibilities. The Senate must pass the CR and send it to President Joe Biden‘s desk before the end of the day on Friday when the government’s funding runs out. The upper chamber is expected to take up the stopgap spending bill as early as Wednesday. Still, even with a government shutdown likely avoided this year, this sets up several roadblocks heading into 2024.

First, there is the infighting among Republicans that has been present in the House since January, when former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) took the gavel. McCarthy was ousted after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) introduced a motion to vacate, claiming the California Republican cut a backroom deal with Democrats to pass a continuing resolution in September and went against promises he made to hard-line conservatives about spending.

Johnson’s continuing resolution also received Democratic support, but it is unlikely that hard-line conservatives will hold him to the same claims they made against McCarthy — particularly since he has indicated he will not bring forward another short-term CR. However, he has set himself up to face a disagreeable House Republican Conference should the two-step CR fail to give the GOP leverage in cutting spending or forcing policy changes. Only 57% of Republicans voted in favor of the CR on Tuesday.

At the heart of the CR issue is whether or not Johnson will honor the deal that McCarthy made with Biden in May, which agreed to raise the debt ceiling for two years and included modest federal spending cuts and a series of policy provisions. Now that McCarthy is no longer speaker, eyes are on Johnson and the Republican conference to see whether they will honor the deal with Biden or seek more extreme spending cuts.

If that is the case, Republicans and Democrats will largely split along party lines over any future continuing resolutions or spending agreements, which could harm the GOP if not all Republicans vote in favor of the appropriations bills. For now, senior GOP aides have told Politico that Johnson is working to pass the full-year appropriations bills and extract concessions from Democrats on policies like the immigration influx at the southern border.

There is some incentive to pass these spending bills. In the May agreement between McCarthy and Biden, there is an across-the-board spending cut of 1% if fiscal year 2024 appropriations bills are not passed by Jan. 1, though it will not go into effect until April. While hard-line conservatives will welcome these cuts, the slash in spending will apply to all government agencies, including the Pentagon — a non-starter for GOP defense hawks, particularly when it comes to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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Republicans could see some cross-chamber fighting, particularly between hard-line House conservatives and Senate Republicans who are in favor of passing a deal that combines aid to both Ukraine and Israel. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is adamant about increasing Pentagon spending above McCarthy and Biden’s deal, as well, telling Politico that “the topline number is not sufficient for the threats we face.”

Johnson is left with few options heading into 2024 if he does not intend to put forward another short-term CR. However, full-year spending bills that follow McCarthy and Biden’s levels to the letter will alienate him from the right flank of his party. One option at the speaker’s disposal is to work with Democrats to accept — or force them into accepting — steeper spending cuts than they agreed to, but that will likely lead to a long confrontation that Congress does not have the time for, particularly as a partial shutdown would loom on Feb. 2.