Longtime Democrats offer sigh of relief in party’s efforts to reclaim House by bucking retirement trend

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) filed for reelection for her California House seat on Monday, completing the paperwork needed to appear on the 2024 ballot just a little over a week before the state deadline.

Waters’s reelection bid comes after several other Democrats have announced they will not seek reelection, giving a glimmer of hope to the party as one of its most senior members bucks the trend of retirement as Democrats try to flip control of the lower chamber next year. Waters joins Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in that effort, with the former House speaker previously announcing her reelection bid earlier this year.

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If reelected, Waters will serve out her 18th term in Congress alongside Pelosi, who would be serving her 20th term, making the pair the two most senior members of California’s congressional delegation. Their reelection would help ensure the party maintains its strength heading into the 2024 cycle, as both congresswomen have been influential members of their party for several decades.

Their reelection bids come as 20 House Democrats have already announced their retirements from the lower chamber next year, leaving open a handful of seats that could offer Republicans a slate of pickup opportunities next year. Of those 20, at least four are situated in swing districts and considered to be some of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

That could make things more challenging for Democrats as they seek to reclaim the House, with open races generally being more unpredictable than those that feature an incumbent running for reelection. Incumbents have a 94.5% chance of being reelected to their seat thanks to name recognition and campaign fundraising, making those races far more predictable than those with an open seat.

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So far, 31 House incumbents have announced they won’t seek reelection. Only 11 Republicans have said they’ll retire next year, giving the party an edge over Democrats as all those seats are in reliably red districts, aside from the seat currently held by Rep. George Santos (R-NY). The other 10 likely won’t offer Democrats any pickup opportunities.

The Washington Examiner has reached out to Waters for comment.