Nikki Haley would beat Biden to become president in 2024 — there’s just one problem

A new poll is showing that former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley could beat President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election — but she may not have an opportunity to make it a reality.

A Messenger/Harris poll found that Haley leads Biden, 41% to 37%, among Republican voters. However, former President Donald Trump leads both Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in head-to-head matchups, another indication that non-Trump candidates may not get a chance to run for the White House.

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In a matchup between Trump and Haley, the former president leads 76% to 19%. Against DeSantis, the former president leads 73% to 21%. However, in a Trump-Haley race, independents backed Haley, 40% to 36%, while independents sided with Trump in a Trump-DeSantis race, 37% to 27%.

“The Haley phenomenon is driven by moderate Republicans, independents, and disaffected voters. She beats Biden handily in a general election because of this but still has a lot of ground to make up with Republicans,” Harris chief pollster Dritan Nesho said.

RealClearPolitics marks Trump in the lead with 61.3%, followed by DeSantis with 13.2% and Haley with 10.2%. The Messenger/Harris poll is the latest to indicate that Haley is becoming the most viable alternative to Trump as DeSantis’s campaign is appearing to lose momentum.

The former U.N. ambassador has been steadily increasing in the polls, narrowing the margin between herself and the Florida governor. At the time, strategists, lawmakers, and voters predicted DeSantis might give the former president something to worry about. Now, strategists and polls indicate that Haley has taken the mantle from DeSantis as she continues to poll at second place in most early primary states.

The Messenger/Harris poll is the second survey to show Haley defeating Biden in a general election. An Emerson College poll found that Haley was the only Republican who could beat Biden in a head-to-head contest in the state, 45% to 39%. The former U.N. ambassador has recently begun poaching donors from her Republican rivals, luring in 250 contributors who donated at least $200 to other Republican campaigns, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of campaign finance records.

A recent poll from New Hampshire found that DeSantis trailed in fourth place behind Trump, Haley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, respectively. However, DeSantis continues to poll well in other key GOP battleground states, such as Iowa. The Florida governor wrapped up his 99-county tour over the weekend, with several state legislators and Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) endorsing DeSantis over Trump, who remains the Hawkeye State’s favorite in recent polls.

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Haley and DeSantis, as well as Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, will participate in the fourth Republican National Committee primary debate on Wednesday in Alabama. Like the first three debates, Trump will not be attending, opting to participate in a town hall with Fox News’s Sean Hannity on Tuesday.

The poll from Messenger/Harris was conducted online from Nov. 27 to Dec. 1 among 2,018 registered voters.