DeSantis under pressure to make ‘closing argument’ in Iowa post-debate

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is hoping his solid performance in the fourth Republican Party-sanctioned debate will propel his campaign in Iowa.

But with six weeks before the 2024 primary‘s opening nominating contest, DeSantis, once former President Donald Trump‘s main competition, is running out of runway for his campaign to take off before Jan. 15.

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DeSantis presented a “clear,” “compelling” vision during this week’s debate in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, according to DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo.

“We look forward to building on this momentum as the governor heads back to Iowa tomorrow for a multiday swing,” Romeo said.

Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Republican strategist Cesar Conda conceded DeSantis performed better on Wednesday than his debate last week against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), but the Nikki Haley supporter was skeptical it would improve his standing in the first-in-the-nation state.

“I suppose you could say DeSantis did well because he wasn’t the focus of everyone’s attacks,” he said. “But it remains to be seen if this performance will boost him in Iowa.”

DeSantis averages 19% support in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics. Trump is 29 percentage points ahead of him with 47%, while Haley, a former U.N. ambassador and governor of South Carolina, is 3 points behind with 16%.

Iowa underpins DeSantis’s campaign after the governor redirected staff and resources to the Hawkeye State last fall. Despite problems between DeSantis and former favored super PAC Never Back Down, which was poised to set a precedent for modern campaigning by being responsible for most of his organizing efforts, the campaign remains confident after so far convincing more than 30,000 Iowans to caucus through six offices and 50 staff members across the team and its aligned committees.

“More than any debate performance, what matters most in Iowa is showing up and spending time with caucusgoers,” one campaign source said.

“A caucus is a little bit different than a primary. People go, two-three hour ordeal, and we’ve got a lot of people that are really committed to that process,” DeSantis himself added Thursday from Iowa. “We’ve got the momentum, we’re going forward, and we’re just going to bring it all to fruition over the next five and a half weeks.”

DeSantis was advantaged in the debate by his recent executive experience and record compared to Haley and even former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, according to University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle.

“As one person I saw on Twitter put it, when Haley talked about some issues DeSantis was able to say that he did that in Florida,” he said. “That will help him, but it’s always hard to say how much any of the debates moves the needle, so to speak.”

Hagle contended candidates tend to lose debates as opposed to winning them, though they do sometimes provide them with attention if people tune in, citing Haley as an example.

“It’s late in the game, so those breakout moments are harder to come by,” the professor said. “Now it’s more a matter of avoiding mistakes and showing strength, competence, etc.”

“DeSantis having a good debate helps to keep his supporters happy with him and can help to convince others that he’s a good alternative to Trump,” he continued. “He’s still going to need to make his ‘closing argument’ to Iowans.”

DeSantis did complete a “full Grassley” last weekend, following in Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) footsteps of visiting all 99 of Iowa’s counties and making 130 stops along the way.

“His campaign is also going to need to do what’s necessary to make sure their ground game is ready for the caucuses,” Hagle said. “Aside from identifying late supporters, it means making sure they know where their caucus location is and getting them to actually turn out on caucus night.”

Haley “took the most incoming” than during any of the other debates but had the second least amount of speaking time, about 17 minutes, according to University of Michigan debate director Aaron Kall. In post-debate statements, DeSantis and his campaign underscored contrasts between him and Haley, portraying her as someone “who caves to the media, [the Chinese Communist Party], corporate Democrats, and supporters of gender mutilation for minors.”

“Social issues returned to a very prominent part of the debate, and DeSantis embraced that,” Kall said. “The problem is, if he was ever in a one-on-one versus Trump, you’re not going to be able to out-Trump Trump on that, but in an event like that where two of the other candidates are more moderate, he can more really talk the language of that.”

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“It looks like now there’s going be a debate right before Iowa, so he certainly has the opportunity to finish strong and try to regain some momentum that was lost earlier in the campaign where he had such high expectations and then Haley’s come along and stolen some of the momentum,” he went on of two CNN meetings. “If he can do a little bit better than expected, then that could provide momentum heading into New Hampshire and other states.”

DeSantis is scheduled to take part in a Mamas for DeSantis event with Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who has endorsed him, on Friday before participating in Faith and Family with Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) on Saturday.