Virginia GOP finds bright spot in 2023 losses with early voting trends

EXCLUSIVE — Voters in Virginia are increasingly relying on mail-in ballots and absentee voting to cast their vote as they provide more convenience, offering a signal of hope to Republicans who are pushing the two methods to boost voter turnout in 2024.

Ballot requests among Virginia Republicans to vote early increased in the Old Dominion state during its statewide elections last month, with nearly half of voters (45%) who requested absentee or mail-in ballots citing convenience as their top reason to do so, according to a survey conducted by the State Government Leadership Foundation that was first obtained by the Washington Examiner. That sense of convenience helped Republicans drive their mail-in ballot campaign, resulting in a 32% increase in turnout among lean-Republican and swing voters who favor Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s agenda.

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The survey comes as Virginia Republicans have increasingly pushed for GOP voters to vote early, particularly ahead of the 2023 elections when control of the state House and Senate were up for grabs. During that cycle, a majority of voters (63%) said they were encouraged to vote for mail, according to that survey.

Republicans and Democrats received nearly equal levels of encouragement to vote early from their respective candidates. However, Republicans were especially reached by Youngkin’s “Secure Your Vote Virginia” campaign, with roughly 72% of Republicans who voted early citing that program as their reason to vote early. That campaign helped to “reduce the deficit GOP candidates have in absentee/early voting,” according to the survey.

The survey comes as Republicans in both Virginia and nationwide have increasingly pushed GOP voters to take advantage of mail-in and absentee voting opportunities, especially after Democrats have successfully used the method to make gains in statewide and national elections. Republicans are expected to continue pushing mail-in voting, especially for key races in 2024.

The polling also comes after the 2023 elections, during which Virginia Democrats won control of both the state House and Senate, dealing a blow to state Republicans who sought to gain complete control of the state legislature next year. Those wins also dealt a blow to Youngkin by giving Democrats the ability to thwart Youngkin’s efforts to implement new abortion restrictions in the states as well as other conservative policies.

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The Republican National Committee has also pushed for its voters to vote early, with committee leaders launching the Bank Your Vote initiative shortly after the 2022 midterm elections. That initiative came after Democrats managed to perform better than expected in both the House and the Senate, prompting Republicans to shift their messaging on absentee voting to increase voter turnout.

Republicans were forced to change their messaging after several voters were warned of possible fraud caused by mail-in voting, especially by former President Donald Trump during the 2020 cycle. Democrats were able to seize on that messaging and managed to increase their own turnout via absentee ballots and mail-in voting in both 2020 and 2022.