Three races to watch after New York GOP takes major loss in fight over congressional maps

New York will have new congressional districts for next year‘s House elections after the state’s court of appeals ordered on Tuesday that the map be redrawn in a move widely seen as benefiting Democrats.

The congressional map will need to be redrawn by the Independent Redistricting Commission, but if that group is unable to formulate maps as it was unable to do in 2022, the Democrat-led state legislature may implement district lines favorable to their party. With the congressional maps being used for the 2024 election unknown, here are three districts to watch that could be upended by new maps.

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1st Congressional District

With the chance to redraw the maps, Democrats may aim to redraw several districts on Long Island to make it more difficult for GOP incumbents to win reelection. One of the the districts targeted in the map passed by Democrats, but ultimately struck down by a court, was the 1st Congressional District on the eastern part of Long Island.

The district is represented by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY), and the district in the court-drawn map has a partisan voting index of Republican +3, according to the Cook Political Report. In the map passed by the Democratic legislature last year, it would have been a partisan voting index of Democrat +6, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Other districts on Long Island that would likely be targeted to be more Democratic include the 3rd and 4th districts, which are swing districts that elected Republicans in 2022.

11th Congressional District

Another race to watch will be in the 11th Congressional District, which makes up all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn.

The district is represented by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) and holds a partisan voting index of Republican +6, according to the Cook Political Report. In the map passed by the legislature in 2022 but was struck down in favor of the current court-ordered map, more Democratic parts of Brooklyn were incorporated into the district to have an estimated partisan voting index of Democrat +7, according to FiveThirtyEight. Redrawing this district could be a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in the Empire State.

19th Congressional District

Several districts in the Hudson Valley and upstate New York may have their lines drastically redrawn in the latest round of redistricting, and the 19th Congressional District could be the most affected.

The district in the middle of the state is represented by Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and has an estimated partisan voting index even between Republicans and Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report. The previously passed map from the legislature had created a 19th District that had a Democrat +4, according to FiveThirtyEight. The new district lines in upstate New York could net pickups for Democrats in previously even or competitive districts.

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Several House Republicans may end up in more competitive races in 2024 as Democrats seek to net seats in the fierce fight for control of the House of Representatives next year.

Redistricting was mostly completed prior to the 2022 elections, but in some states, such as North Carolina and Georgia, congressional districts have been redrawn following legal challenges to the 2022 maps.