Why Biden’s bad polling hasn’t scared vulnerable House Democrats into abandoning the president

Democrats in House seats that Republicans are targeting in 2024 have not been deterred by President Joe Biden’s low poll numbers, and they are still showing support for their party’s leader.

Biden is ending 2023 with record-low approval ratings as national polls show former President Donald Trump leading in seven swing states by an average of 5.28%, according to a recent Morning Consult and Bloomberg News survey.

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But House Democrats at risk of losing their seats next year are holding on to hope that early polls can be inaccurate and pointing to the promised red wave that never happened in the 2022 midterm elections.

“I think polling is increasingly useless,” Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) told Punchbowl News. “If we haven’t taken that away from the last few elections, I don’t know how much more we need to see.” Ryan holds a seat that the Cook Political Report rates as leaning Democratic, but it is still expected to be a competitive contest.

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With Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) recent retirement announcement and the removal of New York GOP Rep. George Santos, Republicans are gearing up to hold on to and expand their razor-thin majority in the lower chamber of Congress, meaning Democrats need to hold on to their own and then some.

“I haven’t kept up with poll numbers,” Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) told Punchbowl News. “It’s early anyway.” Davis’s seat is rated as a Democratic toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report.

While House Democrats are defending Biden, Democratic voters are growing sour over his economics, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas war. According to a Data for Progress poll released earlier this month, around 3 in 4 Democrats support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, something the president has stated his opposition to on multiple occasions.

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Democrats are divided on Biden’s handling of immigration — 50% approve and 47% disapprove — according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday. Overall, Biden’s approval has been steadily dropping this year among Democrats, coming in at 74% most recently, down from 80% in September and 88% in July.

Despite these discouraging numbers, funding for the president and his fellow Democrats has been positive. Biden and the Democratic National Committee and their joint fundraising committees raised over $71 million in this year’s third quarter, a massive haul but not record-breaking. The campaign arm of the House Democrats outraised the House Republicans’ arm by $24.7 million so far in 2023. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $7.5 million in November, totaling $108.9 million in 2023, the committee announced Wednesday.